Shipbuilding Market Forecast
A total of 21.29m cgt was estimated to have been contracted in the world last year, according to a latest report from Clarkson, which was just slightly bigger than 2009's 16.73m cgt. Many predict that this year would see similar amount of new contract on 2012.
Newbuilding contract has been on decrease, since 40.9m cgt contracted in 2010 and 28.9m cgt in 2011. Global newbuilding market is stuck with double dip, long-term depression.
Especially, total newbuildings contracted in 2012 turned out to have plunged on 93.3m cgt in 2007 and 53.7m cgt in 2008, down by 77% and 60% each.
Global shipbuilding industries are faced with lack of works and lower profits amid plummeted new order as well as newbuilding prices.
Clarkson Newbuilding Price Index peaked 185 points in 2007, which declined to 178 points in 2008 when global financial crisis occurred, then further down to 138 points in 2009. The index slightly rose to 142 points in 2010, however, it turned downward again to 139 points in 2011 and 126 points in 2012.
Global orderbook marked the highest with 204m cgt in the end of 2008, but it dropped to 169m cgt in the end of 2009, 152m cgt in the end of 2010, 126m cgt in the end of 2011 and 92.8m cgt as of the end of 2012. Currently, backlog saw a 54% decrease on 2008.
What is worse, due to protracted stagnant shipping market and shrinking ship financing, many shipowners seem troubled to place new orders, even unable to pay full newbuilding prices of previously ordered.
Korean shipbuilders contracted overall 7.46m cgt in 2012 and was ranked the first place for the two consecutive years, more than Chinese shipyards' 7.1m cgt.
However, ranking seems less meaningful recently. The problem is lower newbuilding investment activity. This year would see a slight gain in new order against 2012.
POSCO Research Institute said even if global economy rebounds, due to tonnage oversupply, newbuilding investment would not recover in a short period. If depressed economy continues, lack of new orders could protract for more than five years.
Ko Jae-Ho, chairman of the Korea Shipbuilders' Association as well as president of Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering projected "Shipbuilding and offshore industries will meet with the most difficult time this year, since global financial crisis in 2008," during 2013 New Year Congratulatory Ceremony held on January 10.
ICAP Shipping Research prospected 2013 could mark a turning point and business restructuring wlll gain speed.
While newbuilding market would struggle another year, Eco-design fuel-efficient MR PC and boxship would see new orders, particularly, LNG carrier segment would gain more orders against last year.


