Dry Bulk Sector to Slow Down in 2015

Source:BIMCO
2015.01.06
1190

It is forecast that the dry bulk sector is heading for a slowdown in 2015 to a rate of 4 percent to 5 percent.

Accordingly, the Capesize segment is expected to outperform smaller sizes, as demand growth continues a biased trend towards the Capesize segment.

In 2014, 70 percent of the total volume growth came from increased iron ore demand driven by China. This trend is expected to continue this year as well.

The containership supply is projected to continue to grow at its "new normal" level of around 6 percent, making the demand side a focal point.

European demand has been stronger than private consumption figures indicated, and we may well see further improvement for US demand. The US East Coast could build further on a remarkable year as the ports prepare for the imminent arrival of ultra-large container ships. Enlargement projects in the Panama Canal and Suez Canal will further influence the deployment of ships, according to BIMCO.

Overall, growth in emerging markets and developing economies is set for a comeback in 2015, with GDP growth improving from 4.4 percent in 2014 to 5.0 percent in 2015.

The advanced economies are likely to stay on the recovery track, and improve their GDP growth to 2.3 percent in 2015 (1.8 percent in 2014).

The common challenges remain poor inflation expectations, a lack of structural reforms and lack of job creation. There is clearly room for more political initiatives in 2015 to support the global economy, BIMCO added.


TOP