Fearnleys Week 29 2011
TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
The VLCC market appears to be solidly in the doldrums with the current trend of very limited action continuing. Charterers keep on drip feeding cargoes to the market, and the tonnage list grows longer with each passing day. With only about fourteen VLCC cargoes fixed from the MEG for August loading, there should be a great deal more to be done, but charterers appear to be in little hurry to get things moving. Brisker Suezmax activity continued this week particularly from WAF and this resulted in slightly firmer rates. Rates were also firmer for Suezmaxes in the Med/Bsea as a result of WAF improvements even though there were few Suezmax requirements in the Med/Bsea. Nevertheless, we believe that Suezmax rates may have reached their peak for this cycle and we expect activity to ease off as more tonnage becomes available for August liftings. For Aframaxes trading in the Med/Bsea there were few changes in recent rate levels, and certainly, there was not enough inquiry to get this market moving in an upward direction. Nsea and Baltic Aframax rate levels were about the same as those seen last week, and even though there are still a number of cargoes yet to be fixed, a well-stocked tonnage list looks likely to keep these markets well-balanced.
Product
There is no reason to celebrate the daily earnings in the Transatlantic market, with fixtures dead flat at ws145 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. Looking on the bright side of things, the TA volumes are moving and if we see an influx of WAFR requirements, it could pick up from here. Despite a few vssls being cleared out, LR1s trading Baltic/USAC are still struggling at ws110 basis 60kt. Smaller tonnage have come under a bit of pressure with Handies across NWEurope fixing ws150 basis 30kt, with Flexis softer at ws175 basis 22kt. Stateside things looks bottomed out, with upcoast voyages fixing at ws145 basis 38kt, backhaul voyages USG/UKC-Med at ws90 level basis 38kt. We believe the downside from here is very limited and see flat rates with a slight potential for firming next week. After a slow period for the clean product tankers East of Suez, the market is showing signals of firming up. There is still quite a bit of tonnage available on the LR1s, but cargo enquiries are picking up. As a result, LR1s trading MEG/JPN are now fixing steadily at ws125+ basis 55kt. For the LR2s trading on the same route, tonnage availability is getting tight and are now fixing at ws122.5 basis 75kt. The story is similar for LR1s fixing Jet fuel MEG/UKC, now fixing at USD 2.0 million basis 65kt. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws145 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are still seeing rates around ws145 basis 35kt.
DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
Atlantic softening across all segments with little fresh enquiry ex Bsea/Cont/ USG and ECSA. Trips to Feast remain healthy. More cargoes expected for 1st half of August but this remains to be seen. Overall sentiment remains soft in Pacific, however few enquiries keeping market busy. For Indo-India, supras in South China are getting close to 12k. Nickel-ore rounds are getting firm rates in low mid-teens. Very quiet on iron ore front due to monsoons as WCI-China rates slided to 10k and from ECI around 9k. Few cargoes seen from RBCT. As a result, RBCT biz fixed on ECI tonnage around 11k. Red Sea, ferts on handymax/ supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voy bss to WC India. Period deals done at 13k for large supras.
Panamax
Panamax market faced a slow start to the week, with limited activity in all basins. Atlantic rounds have stabilized around mid teens, however the north continent is somewhat tighter on tonnage, so this area might improve somewhat in the next few days. Ballasters for the Pacific are keeping the EC South American market down, in spite of quite a few cargoes out of that area. A few fresh cargoes emerged as well out of Indonesia and Aussie, but not enough to support any rise in rates for the time being. However the fall in rates seems to flatten out. With a tic more positive tone in both basins the last day, the end of the week may bring a steadier market, but this remains to be seen.
Capesize
The lack of direction in the market has continued this week, but now showing signs of weakening. The West Australia market was struggling to decide which side of usd 8.00 the market should be, and fixture have been concluded on both sides, though the most recent reported is at a low usd 7.75. Also the Front haul market was stable, just over the usd 20.00 mark, but has now dropped below and is not closer to usd 19.50pmt. The Atlantic again was living in its own world, but saw a significant down turn towards the end of the week, but has now stabilized at a healthier usd 13,000 level p/ d. This market may not last as we suspect re-let charterers have cleared their tables pending the holiday season, but it should be noted that the tonnage supply is still tight. On the period front some more short period deals have been done in the usd 11,500-12,000 level which is only slightly down from the last rally. One can attribute this to fewer vessels idle (not trading) due to the low market level.
GAS
CHARTERING
There was very little confirmed business over the last week, but a few fixtures have been put on subs both in the East and West at rates equivalent to mid USD 50´s Ras Tanura/Chiba. Despite the recent turn of the Baltic VLGC index into red colour succeeding four weeks of daily increases, the fairly strong momentum is maintained as very few VLGCs are available over the coming fortnight. A typhoon moving north direction Japan/Korea from the South China Sea has caused some delays and disruptions already which in turn has lead to some more freight inquiries as some vessels struggle to reach their next loaddates. Beyond the next couple of weeks the freight outlook is more uncertain as there will be fewer export cargoes from the MEG in August than in July, and combined with rather full LPG inventories in the Far East and a few more open VLGCs than in July the freight market may lose some of its current power. It does, however, have a potential for extended strength if more cargoes are traded from the East to the West.
NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
We observe slow newbuilding activity over the past week, as we now enter into the European summer holiday season. Golar LNG of Norway has added another 160,000 cbm ship, boosting its current LNG orders to 7 vessels. This latest vessel is scheduled for delivery July 2014. Golar still holds one more optional vessel at Samsung.
DEMOLITION
MARKET BRIEF