Korean shipyards are unlikely to expect recovery in commercial ship before the second half of 2013.
Analyst Jung Woo-Chang, Mirae Asset Securities said "With weak new order momentum seen in commercial ship segment by concerns over tonnage overcapacity and Eurozone crisis, shipbuilding market remains bearish, for instance, newbuilding prices as of the end of August have declined by 6% year-on-year."
"Moreover, as high-valued newbuildings ordered before a boom before 2009 are taking smaller proportion in turnover, shipbuilders' consensus earnings are readjusted downward as well."
Therefore, he said that before H2 2013, since commercial ship takes about 50% of orderbooks, major Korean shipyards would be hard to expect recovery in the segment.
Jung pointed out "Samsung Heavy Industries with relatively bigger orders for offshore sector and Hyundai Mipo Dockyard, which will get benefit from improving tanker market, are selected as the best shipyards with preferable shares."