Although global LNG carrier market is expected to face a temporary supply demand imbalance around 2014, after then, the market would steadily grow and around 30 newbuildings will be placed orders every year.
Analyst Yang Jong-Seo from KEXIM Overseas Economic Research Institute reported as such in his report titled '2012 mid-to-long term market forecast for LNG carrier', on June 15.
Yang said that 2011 has seen a massive ordering for newbuilding LNG carriers and significant amount has been awarded this year as well. However, recent increase in LNG-carrier rate is possibly a bubble, as demand growth by Japanese nuclear power plant crisis only remains at around 10%. Therefore, recently ordered tonnage would bring about an oversupply.
He pointed out that global LNG fleet reaches at 372 vessels (53m cbm) and much of the LNG fleet is not old enough to be scrapped, which make it harder to avoid oversupply through scrapping.
During 2014-2015, balance between supply and demand for LNG tonnage is expected to get worse, but not as bad as around 2009. As new LNG projects, such as shale gas in north American region, etc., are scheduled to start operation after 2015, at least 30 newbuildings are to be invested every year from 2016 to 2019.
In a short term, 30 LNG carriers are estimated to be ordered this year, while 28 vessels, 15, and 25 are expected to be placed for orders in 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively.
Meanwhile, 52 LNG carriers were contracted in 2011, sharply increased from five vessels contracted in 2008, zero in 2009 and six in 2010. About 15 vessels have been ordered year-to-date.