With China’s economic policy plan for the future on every ship owner’s mind, at least those involved in the dry bulk industry, the latest news that China’s Premier, Wen Jiabao announced that the 2012 China target of growth will be 7.5% certainly didn’t cause for any celebration. Instead, as Intermodal’s George Bassakos points out, “it is an evident move to further control China's furious economic growth, support consumption and protect the country from the effects of the financial debt crisis hurting the West. But what are the implications of this decision on Shipping? Definitely not good news” he said.
According to Bassakos, “China’s mining trade association expects imports of iron ore, could drop by as much as 14 per cent for 2012, as the country ramps up domestic production, a move which will not come as good news for capesize bulkers, witnessing record fleet growth.
Chinese steel production at 52.1mt in January 2012 (down 13.0 per cent year-on-year), is nothing more than another proof of domestic falling demand. Chinese steel production is a key driver as it accounts for 46% of global steel production, while iron ore and coking coal account for 29% and 6% of transported cargoes. Furthermore, Chinese iron ore and steel stockpiles remain at historically high levels - a real concern for dry bulk shipping.
Dry bulk shipping still suffers from supply issues with 2012 being the 3rd year in a row, with double-digit supply growth and such news coming from China, will put further pressure on rates. Some improvements are expected (and needed) but definitely the glory days of the past seem to have elapsed” concluded Intermodal’s Bassakos in his analysis.
Meanwhile, in the demolition market there remains plenty of activity in the market place and price levels have stabilized or in some cases and surprisingly, improved slightly. According to the latest weekly report of Clarkson Hellas “India, the bedrock of the industry for many months now, continue to be the major players. Some 52 vessels had arrived to the anchorage for resale into Alang in February, however many we understand, remain unsold to the breakers or are suffering attempted renegotiations. These problems are now rarely highlighted in the market unlike previous years, which really is a credit to the cash intermediaries who really have brought some exemplary work ethics into the business over recent years, particularly when they are placing deposits into Owners accounts and have the added pressure of some unethical efforts imposed on them by the breakers.
Despite a settled local currency and stable domestic steel market in India, no reasonable price
increases are evident due to the large supply of tonnage to the area and some are pleasantly
surprised that we have not seen any negative correction in rates. However, the next couple of weeks may see inquiry and activity from India wane whilst the date for the budget draws closer (16th March) as buyers may prefer to hold back from risking numbers pre-budget for later deliveries.
Bangladesh still remains cautious as whilst vessels are being beached, it is reported that there
remains lengthy delays completing inward custom formalities and breakers continue to face difficulties opening Letters of Credit. It is hoped that in the future, everything could return to how they used to be, free of any delays or financial issues, to ease the pressure on their counterparts in India” concluded Clarkson Hellas.
In a separate report, shipbroker Golden Destiny stated that “scrap prices are still soft with vessels being on stream of disposal and India leading the game as Bangladesh still tries to find its strength. The Central Bank of Bangladesh has increased lending rates as the depreciation of its currency against the dollar has resulted in lower dollar reserves. The monetary tightening has made it more difficult for scrap yards to obtain letters of credit; putting pressure on Bangladesh’s scrapping business. Scrap levels for dry units are floating at levels $460-$470/ldt and for wet units near to $500/ldt with China offering below $450/ldt.
The week ended with 21 vessels reported to have been headed to the scrap yards of total deadweight 1,281,029 tons. In terms of the reported number of transactions, the demolition activity has been marked with a 91% week-on-week increase, whereas there has seen a 92.35% increase regarding the total deadweight sent for scrap. In terms of demolition levels, the highest scrap rate has been achieved this week in the tanker segment by Pakistan for a VLCC unit of 269,065 dwt with 34,294 ldt built 1992 at $502/ldt. Bulk carriers have grasped the lion share of this week’s total demotion activity, 38%, with India winning 52.38% and China 24% of the activity. At a similar week in 2011, demolition activity was down by 36% from the current levels, in terms of the reported number of transactions, 15 vessels had been reported for scrap of total deadweight 597,238 tons with bulk carriers grasping 33% and liners
40% of the total number of vessels sent for disposal. India and Pakistan had been offering $455-$465/ldt for dry and $485-$495/ldt for wet cargo, while Bangladesh market had been inactive from the demolition scene” concluded Golden Destiny in its report.