Fearnleys Week 18 2011

Source:Fearnleys
2011.05.05
1037

TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
The MEG VLCC market continued to limp along with fairly steady activity, but only minor adjustments to rates. With some 65 fixtures done for May and  steady  supply  of  tonnage charterers seem  to  have  no  rush  to  secure cover  for  their  remaining  May  stems,  nor  to  have  fear  about  any  major change in present rate levels. VLCC owners might see some more demand ex WAFR due to renewed activity for SMAX but doubtful enough to boost present meagre earnings. The Atlantic Suezmax market weakened somewhat mainly due to the long wedding weekend, but has regained speed this week with renewed interest from charterers. The MED/Black Sea Suezmax activity remains quiet and has so far not come back to life after the holidays and the rates softened. Aframax rates in the Nsea/Baltic gained strength last week due to tonnage sensitivity for certain dates in play. Almost opposite scenario was true for Aframaxes in the Med/Bsea as rates declined due to too many ships available.
Product
The wheels are again in motion on the continent and activity has picked up nicely in the transatlantic market. That said, rates seem to have come off their highs and is MR vessels are now fixing around ws237.5 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. With an overhand of larger tonnage, rates have come under pressure  for  LR1s  Baltic/USAC,  now  trading  around  ws140  basis  60kt. There  is  effectively  no  ice-premium  left  to  be  had,  and  handies  trading across NWEurope are under pressure around ws195 basis 30kt, with Flexis softer at ws210 basis 22kt. On the back of a longer tonnage list, Caribs upcoast rates are softer at ws185 basis 38kt, and backhaul voyages USG/UKC- Med softer at ws115 level basis 38kt. As expected, we have seen a slightly softer product tanker market east of Suez the last week. We expect the market to remain stable, although rates are still date-sensitive. For LR1s trading MEG/JPN fixtures are being concluded at ws145 basis 55kt. On the LR2s, we have seen a stabilized market still fixing at WS 130 basis 75kt on the same route. Rates for Jet fuel liftings MEG/UKC basis 65kt have spiked and are now fixing at USD 2.1 million. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws155 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are seeing rates around ws165 basis 35kt.

 

DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
The Atlantic market is stable/flat with positive undertone meaning more enquiries hitting the market today. Lack of prompt vessels. Trips to the Far East around $22-25,000 per day for Supras nevertheless a lot of actors are still assessing the market´s direction. The Pacific market remains extremely quiet and owners and charterers are both holding and watching cautiously how the market moves. For Indo-India, Supras in North China are getting close to 13k. WCI-China rates slided to 15k and rates from ECI around 13k, but few ships seen ballasting to Indonesia as not much cargoes ex-ECI. Red Sea, ferts on handymax/ Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Not too much activity on  short period as  market bit volatile and speculative and hear index type vessels fixed at mid-teens.
Panamax
After holidays in several countries last week and beginning this week the market returned with an active upturn on Tuesday. Increased activity and elevated levels caused by more prompt coal cargos and a still active ECSA grain market and lack of prompt positions. Typical levels mid week around 13k for TA and healthy 26 + 600 BB fixed from ECSA. In the eastern hemisphere    Nopac  rounds  done  at  13k  and  even  short  period  activity showed signs of a recovery with fixtures in the mid 14 range. The FFA market not reflecting the spot market upswing, indicating there is some nervousness to the fundamentals behind a lasting rebounce.
Capesize
The  misery  continues,  with  average  spot  earning  stable  at  below  "opex" levels  -  only  a  cosmetic  change  to  the  worse  during  last  few  days  and presently standing at usd 6500. The crisis caused by the unprecedented flow of  NB  deliveries  is  now  being  ever  more  felt  on  the  cross-trades,  with fronthaul coming off another 5% to come in at some usd 18500, backhaul sinking further into the red  to  around -usd 5k.  Transatlantic and  -pacific activity is fair in comparison, with resultant levels improving somewhat to usd 5k/7k, respectively. Period fixing remains limited, with a fair usd 13500 done on 180kdwt ex yard mid May for 13/15 mos, 6/8 months concluded on similar unit/delivery at average 4tc for 1st 30 days/balance period at usd 12500.

 

GAS
CHARTERING
It has been a quiet week in the VLGC market - May Day, Golden Week and Chinese holidays have slowed down the activity level. May posted prices came out from the main suppliers and they were basically all at "all time high". It will most likely take a little while to digest the new record high prices with the softer crude prices, and therefore it may take a few days until shipping activity resumes. The majority of the little activity there was, happened in the western hemisphere caused by the open arbitrage from USG to Europe and a few vessels were fixed accordingly. The east rates were talked in line with April rates, i.e. in the low USD 50´s basis RT/Chiba - or equivalent to USD 22/23,000 per day on a modern fullsize VLGC. By the look  of  it  the  freight  market  seems  soft  ahead  with  more  vessels  than cargoes, however, practically all May vessels are in control of independent owners  and  therefore  we  do  not  believe  rates  will  change  much  in  the nearest future.

 

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
Quiet newbuilding market with few new orders to report, explainable given the Golden Week celebrations in the Far East. Zodiac has switched a part of an order for VLOC at STX to 2 Capesize bulkers. In addition, Zodiac has added 3 more Panamax bulk carriers at the yard with delivery slated for 2013. While we report few new orders, the major Korean yards are reporting high activity in the LNG segment where we expect to see more contracts to be placed over the next weeks. Newbuilding prices are still stable, but we observe a price increase in raw materials which will most likely impact on newbuilding prices.

 

DEMOLITION

 

MARKET BRIEF

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