The projected outlook for global new orders in 2012 seems bleak according to Asiasis, especially for China and S. Korea.
It is estimated that China and S. Korea will see great plunge in new orders in next year while Japan is likely to keep current level.
The industry’s average predication of the three shipbuilding countries’ new orders in 2012 is about 38.5m LGT, 20%-30% down compared with the 50m-57m predication of 2011.
The forecasts for China and S. Korea are more miserable than that of Japan, New orders of Korean shipyards in 2012 are expected to dive 30%-40% to about 15m LGT, and for China down by 20%-30% to 15m LGT, while the estimation for Japan is more optimistic.
As for the detailed ship type, insiders say demand for LNG carriers, S&M bulkers, LPG carriers, offshore plants and offshore supporting vessels will be on the rise. On the contrary, orders for tanker and containerships will see declines.
The European crisis has further depressed the ship financing market and European shipowners’ appetite for new vessels. Besides, the current overcapacity of tanker, bulker and containership would not end in short time, which limits future new orders in another respect.
The newbuilding price for next year is expected to continue the low tone due to the continuing overcapacity. However, expert say the price is unlikely to go through substantial decline as the price has been close to historical low.