By 2014, three-quarters of perishable cargo will be carried by containerships, not specialised refrigerated vessels, according to Drewry Maritime Research.
The forecast comes as dynamics in the reefer market continue to change, with containerised transport putting pressure on freight rates for specialised ships.
“With 12-month charter rates forecasted to continue sliding, scrapping levels gaining pace and for the first time an empty newbuild orderbook, the industry is changing quickly,” says a report in IFW’s sister publication, Lloyd’s List.
“Twelve-month period charter rates continued to fall in 2011, having lost 10% in 2010, with some positives being drawn from the spot market, where overall year-end forecast rates are still on course to be higher than those in 2010.
“But with strong competition from containership operators, the financial outlook is a cautious one.”
The news comes despite worldwide trade of perishable goods increasing last year, with seaborne movement of these products gaining accordingly.
The 74% of perishable reefer cargo that will be carried by containerships in three years time will provide up to 95% of overall reefer capacity, Drewry said.
“For the first time, the newbuilding orderbook stands at zero, coupled with scrapping programmes that have seen, on average, 36 vessels a year scrapped between 2008-2010 and a further 19 added to the list as of June 2011, the fleet now stands at 691 vessels,” said the analyst.
“If scrapping continues along recent trends it is feasible that the fleet could dwindle to 476 vessels by 2015.”
However, research consultants suggest a number of trades will remain suited to specialised reefership services and provide profit for shipowners. It will simply be on a smaller scale than has been seen in the past.
Drewry’s Susan Oatway said the boxship sector was “by no means gifted an untroubled future”, as the pricing of handling reefer cargo continues to present a headache for many operators.
“On the one hand, they will be keen to see constant, or increasing, utilisation levels of reefer slots. Given the high number of newbuildings scheduled to deliver, this suggests downward rate pressure,” she said.
“On the other hand, they will be keen to maintain pricing structures given both the impact this inevitably has on other cargo, as well as their current financial concerns.”