With shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's latest analysis report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted.
He concluded his argument by noting that "this may well seem like a repeat of the 80’s crisis, as mentioned countless times in conferences, articles and polite conversations, however it has more of the taste and feel of the 1930’s, which was a combined battle between a fleet oversupply that had amassed from the optimism of the roaring 20’s (70mill GT) and a recessive global economy brought about by an unprecedented financial collapse. Although this is in reference to a time that few, if any, are around to be able to give us a first account, nevertheless, it is notable to point out that at that time it took a major war to restructure the market and level things off between supply and demand. As it is highly unlikely and greatly undesirable for history to repeat itself, we will have to come to terms with the fact that market restructuring will have to come from within this time around. It will take a lot more sacrifices and restraints in order to bring a balance, as well as profitability once again to sectors such as dry bulkers and tankers" Intermodal's analyst concluded.