The world’s idle containership fleet has reached its lowest level since August 2008, but uncertainty remains as overcapacity on all main trade routes has led to poor utilisation levels and severe rate erosion.
Research by Paris-based Alphaliner shows the idle containership fleet has effectively returned to pre-crisis levels.
At the beginning of June, Alphaliner recorded only 63 idle ships, the equivalent of 80,000teu. It expects the figure to fall by a further 20,000teu in the next few weeks.
It also said the number of ships of above 1,000teu in long-term lay-up had fallen to less than 15, including a handful of mothballed US-flagged ships.
However, Alphaliner warned that if demand failed to pick up strongly in the next two months, the return of surplus ships by charterers could lead to an increase in the idle fleet by September.
“While the idle fleet has diminished due to the high demand for containerships in the first half of this year, the outlook remains uncertain,” it said.
“Low utilisation levels on a number of key routes and non-compensatory freight rates could force carriers to scale back deployed capacity later in the year.
“Utilisation on the key trades and Far East-Europe routes has stubbornly remained below 90% in the last four months, which led to a severe reduction in spot market freight rates.
“Although there have been moves by a few carriers to cut down capacity in the last two months, the vast majority of carriers continued to bring new capacity into the market.”
Out of 32 main carriers surveyed by Alphaliner, 27 carriers added capacity over the last 12 months, while only five carriers reduced their operated capacity.
Among those lines which decreased capacity were The Containership Company, which withdrew its liner operations abruptly in April, and Argentinian carrier Maruba, which was forced to scale down its operations as owners withdrew ships on charter last year.
“CSAV’s sudden announcement of the suspension of the Far East-US West Coat ASIAM service this week could signal the start of a reversal of the recent high demand for tonnage,” added the analyst.