Fearnleys Week 24 2011
TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
The VLCC market ex-MEG has gone a little quiet as June draws to a close. It seems that only a few charterers are covering their positions early, with the majority comfortable in the present supply of tonnage and waiting for stems to be confirmed. The Atlantic VLCC market saw little joy in light of weak Suezmax rates. VLCC rates are expected to remain steady around present levels. The Atlantic Suezmax market remained flat this past week and is believed to have bottomed out. Although we saw a somewhat busier market this week there is still sufficient tonnage available for dates in play, enabling charterers to maintain current rate levels. As there was no change in rates or activity for Suezmaxes in the MED and Black Sea this past week, owners seeking employment in West Africa are enabling charterers to keep the pressure on the rates in this region. It was also a quiet week in the Nsea and Baltic, although end of the month cargoes coming into play could result in increased activity. Rates are definitely at bottom levels, as they have been for quite some time now. MED activity picked up a bit this week and rates have improved. Black sea on the other hand seems quiet but rates are up due to the MED market.
Product
Despite their best efforts to push the market back up from their current low levels, Owners have not been able to see anything more than a mild dead- cat bounce in Transatlantic rates for now, with MRS fixing around ws147.5 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. The pain for the big ships is worse, as the continent is clogged up with far too much available tonnage; LR1s trading Baltic/USAC is fixing at ws112.5 basis 60kt. Smaller tonnage is neither in scarce supply, with Handies trading across NWEurope at ws152.5 basis 30kt, and Flexis at ws195 basis 22kt. On the bright side, Caribs and USG activity seems bottomed out, with upcoast voyages fixing at ws130 basis 38kt, backhaul voyages USG/UKC-Med at ws90 level basis 38kt. We continue to see a flat trend for clean tonnage in the West. East of Suez we observe yet another drop in freight rates for the LR1s, while the LR2s are dead flat. We expect that the market is very close to bottoming out, and do not expect any substantial downside from current levels. For LR1s trading MEG/JPN fixtures are being concluded at WS 120 basis 55kt, and on the LR2s fixtures are being concluded at WS 105 basis 75kt on the same route. We have seen quite a few jet fuel cargoes heading west, but with recent rate levels on the Continent, Owners are reluctant on taking more vessels in this direction. Jet fuel liftings MEG/UKC basis 65kt are fixing at USD 1.875 million. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws155 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are seeing rates around ws142 basis 35kt.

DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
Stable market in the Atlantic across the board with a ´good balance´ between tonnage and cargoes. More enquiries for the rest of June thus expect rates to firm up in the second half of the month but the element of uncertainty will be the effect from the important volume of ballasters coming from India/South Africa/PG. In the Pacific we have been seeing plenty of enquiries in the market. For short period business the level is around 15k per day. West coast tonnage may see close to usd 10k for trip to China with freight levels hovering between USD 15/17.00 pmt. Ec coast tonnage will compete for indo position with China business. Hmx/Spmx getting fixed at usd low/mid 20´s ex Rsea/India.
Panamax
Hot for spot! June loaders for a still active ECSA grain season and Indonesian coal requirements have pushed the market in both hemispheres to be more comfortable than perhaps anticipated. Furthermore, increased mineral activity in the Atlantic improved opportunities for prompt positions, in particular on the Continent. Overall, the Panamax market maintains healthier levels than the bigger size at least for now. Transatlantic rounds in the USD 17,000 range, Fronthaul from ECSA typically 25,500 + 550 GBB. Pacific rounds in the mid teens with some stronger levels achieved for Indo rounds or trips to India. Period and forward market not affected much at all by the current lively spot market. The so called summer lull is not here - yet.
Capesize
Signs of life again after a week in the doldrums. Atlantic is heating up, with a sudden dramatic increase in transatlantic demand - too fresh to be reflected in levels concluded. Fronthaul volumes are stable at low volumes - rates unchanged w-o-w ie around usd 22k for fhaul trips, around usd 20/mt on the Tubarao/Qingdao ore run. Major miners steadily picking tonnage for iron ore Waust/China, but rates improved only marginally to some usd 7.80 pmt on the Dampier/Qingdao reference trade. Moderate period activity - exemplified by 169,000 dwt/built 2009 done for 12 mos at usd 10,500 and 17,6000 dwt/ built 2010 done for 4/6 mos at usd 10,250 - both basis prompt delivery in Far East.


GAS
CHARTERING
The activity level picked up slightly with a few spot fixtures being concluded towards the end of last week. The start of this week saw activity levels drop again, much owing to a bank holiday on Monday and the P&G conference in Singapore. Despite the Baltic LPG rate increasing throughout the last week, there were reportedly fixtures being made in the low usd 40´s basis Ras Tanura / Chiba. In effect, July cargoes seems to have fixed at a small discount compared to the June rates and when the seemingly bullish sentiment amongst owners was put to the test it proved to be weaker than expected. This week another FOB tender was floated and a few Far East and India cargoes emerged for loading in the MEG, something which reduced the number of open spot vessels in the area to a large extent. The number of prompt vessels in the MEG (including relets) will increase fairly rapidly in July and perhaps put a downward pressure on rates again. In the West there has been very limited activity although a few fixtures were reported towards the end of last week, including a short TC for an LGC which will be trading in the Caribs. Unless some spot cargoes appear in the market the activity level is not likely to change to any extent, particularly considering that the port of Houston is scheduled for maintenance from end June and halfway through July.

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
Some activity in the gas and container markets this week. Although most of the newbuilding contracts in the gas sector over the last couple of months have been in LNG, Norwegian owner Solvang placed a order for a LPG carrier at Korean major HHI. The delivery is set to 3Q2013. In addition, Seaspan adds another 7 large container carriers at Chinese yard Yangzijiang, the price for the 10,000 TEU ship is reported at USD 100 mill.

DEMOLITION

MARKET BRIEF



