Fearnleys Week 22 2011
TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
Activity in the VLCC market was steady during the past week, but this failed to create a great deal of optimism among shipowners. Charterers were still able to easily secure transportion on the MEG/East route in the low ws50s. Nonetheless, even though it has been easy for VLCC charterers to prevail at current rate levels, the list of available tonnage is slowly getting shorter. With the balance between supply of VLCC tonnage and the demand for it still on an even keel, there is always the chance that the continuing erosion of tonnage availability could make things difficult for those who still have June stems,...if they wait too long to fix. Tonnage could, presumably be in much shorter supply if the steady rate of fixing continues. The Suezmax market in WAF was slow with rates holding in the low ws70s for voyages to the USG, and with plenty of tonnage availability, it seems unlikely that owners can expect a lift in the near future. The same was true for Suezmaxes in the Med/Bsea area where rates were also in the low ws70s. With only a single outstanding cargo reported from the Bsea, rates could be under further downward pressure. There was also little cause for Aframax owners to celebrate either as rates declined from all loading areas in the face of little activity. Aframax tonnage continues to be plentiful and until more activity makes an appearance to take up the slack, those charterers who do enter the market will find themselves sitting securely in the driving seat.
Product
Following the massacre in transatlantic freight rates seen last week, the market bottom seems behind us for now. MR rates have stabilized at ws145 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. Activity on the LR1s trading Baltic/USAC is still sluggish, pushing rates down to ws125 basis 60kt. Too many ships on the continent have put smaller ships under pressure as well, with Handies trading across NWEurope at ws165 basis 30kt, and Flexis at ws200 basis 22kt. Caribs and USG activity is slow as well, with upcoast voyages fixing at ws145 basis 38kt, backhaul voyages USG/UKC-Med at ws90 level basis 38kt. Despite the flattening out in transatlantic rates, we´re not going to hold our breath for a big bounce just yet. After a soft period in the clean tanker market East of Suez, we expect to see the market to stabilize at present levels. For LR1s trading MEG/JPN fixtures are being concluded at WS 135 basis 55kt, and on LR2s fixtures are being concluded at WS 115 basis 75kt on the same route. Jet fuel liftings MEG/UKC basis 65kt are fixing at USD1.95 million. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws150 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are seeing rates around ws152 basis 35kt.

DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
The Handy/Supra market has in general been flat and un-exciting this week. The Black Sea market is almost non existing while the US Gulf market is more active with grain and petcoke cargoes. Tarv´s are fecthing ard Usd 15, 500 while the South Atlantic is holding stable with rates hovering ard mid 20
´s for trips back to the Feast. The Pacific market remains quiet. For Indo- India, Supras in North China are getting close to 11k. Nickel-ore rounds are getting firm rates in mid-high teens from Indonesia. WCI-China rates slided to 13k and from ECI around 12k. Red Sea, ferts on handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/India round are now asking 14k. Short period deals done at 14-15k for large Supras.
Panamax
After last week´s rush to cover prompt cargoes on the remaining spot ships with increasing rates, the market took a breather this week. The activity has been slower, and the curves have been pointing downwards in both hemispheres. Ascension day in several European countries on Thursday will probably not help on the activity, but mid week we see signs of more cargoes entering the market for mid/second half June. This will most likely affect owners´ rates, and push the market a bit up again in the Atlantic. Today the Tarv´s getting fixed in the region of 15,500 while fronthauls are being fixed in the low 20´s. In the Pacific the rounds are being fixed ard 13k while the backhauls are fetching around 6k. The period market has been somewhat more active this week with short periods being fixed with Feast delivery at ard USD 15,500.
Capesize
Last week´s enthusiasm has continued into this week, and the results are apparent in the rates owners are achieving. West Australia up from usd 7.35 pmt to usd 7.75 pmt. And the strength in the Atlantic continued, with fixtures done this week at USD 13k p/d for round voyages, up from USD
12k. The transatlantic market has helped the Brazil /China trade, which has struggled to move upwards due to too many committed ballasters, and rates are now at usd 20.50 pmt, up from usd 19.75 pmt on Friday, as vessels open in the Atlantic are preferring to fix better numbers on the Atlantic RV route. On the period front there has been a few fixtures concluded for shorter period at healthier numbers such as USD 11250 for 4-6 months on a 178k dwt modern unit.

GAS
CHARTERING
Has the VLGC market bottomed out in this cycle now? A few vessels were fixed and sub-fixed at and marginally over the USD 40 mark (Ras Tanura/ Chiba basis), a level that equals no more than the OPEX rate of a modern VLGC, about USD 10,000 per day. This is the lowest net return since first quarter 2010, a level way under what was expected only a couple of weeks ago for 2nd quarter 2011. May ended with a bit of a sigh and lukewarm spirits, but nonetheless there was some activity and even vessels showing open in the middle of June were looked at. The independent owners seem to have said to themselves "enough is enough, now we have done our part" and will wait for the charterers to make the next moves in reviving the market over the next weeks. The June posted prices were announced yesterday, as expected considerably lower than the May posted prices, but probably not sufficiently low to encourage an awful lot of trading and chartering. Most likely the freight market will carry on slowsteaming in the nearest future, but we will not be surprised if rates turn modestly upwards.

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
The week following Nor-Shipping we note that a number of contracts have been concluded during or shortly after Owners and Shipyards met in Oslo. We see good activity in the newbuilding market with larger units now slipping into 2014 deliveries at the major yards. Still a pressure towards increasing prices due to a weak US dollar as well as increasing steel prices.

DEMOLITION

MARKET BRIEF



