Changing the Course of Shipping Again?
Two years from now, in about the time it takes to build a Panamax bulk carrier, will mark the centenary of something that was to change the course of shipping. On the 14th August, 1914, the Panama Canal was officially opened. The 48-mile link was the fulfilment of a long-held desire for such a short-cut trade route between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Defining a Panamax…
Its success is attested by the growth in the number of vessels that use it. In the last financial year traffic through the Canal amounted to 13,000 transits (82% laden) carrying a total of 222m tons of cargo. However, that is a relatively modest share of world trade and does represent less than one laden transit per vessel per year for eligible bulk carriers and containerships.
Traffic necessarily has been restricted by the dimensions of the Canal, 32.3m beam and 12.04m draft, despite the best efforts of naval architects to squeeze larger size Panamax vessels out of the limitations. And, the post-Panamax has become commonplace; the first such containership appeared in 1988, the first bulk carrier many years before that.
A New Definition…
However, the centenary will offer a second milestone. After much deliberation the Panama Canal expansion project got under way in 2007 and its near completion by 2014 will re-define the meaning of a Panamax vessel, and, quite possibly, the future course of shipping like the original Canal. As the Graph of the Week shows, the key limiting dimensions of the Canal will increase to 49m beam and 15.2m draft, while the length limitation of 366m will be no bar to any vessel type.
New Opportunities…
In terms of the current bulk carrier fleet, this will leave draft as the only limiting factor for transit of the Canal (see Graph). As a result, only a handful of the 3,769 vessels of 50-120,000dwt (258m dwt in total) will face a restriction, while a further 1,329 larger vessels (of 248m dwt in total) will be able to transit the Canal with less than a full cargo, as current Panamax vessels have to do.
The super-boom in shipbuilding means that there are currently 1,238 vessels of 50-120,000 dwt (90m dwt) and 267 larger vessels (59m dwt) on order that will also become eligible for using the Canal. It will be open for business to a far larger number of vessels than hitherto. The real question is whether there is the volume of trade over the route to support the number of vessels that can use it.
Missing the Boat…?
The expanded capacity of the Canal will provide a new and possibly more efficient trade route for the shipping industry. But the emergence of China and Asia and the growth of east-west trade has already taken place without it. The challenge for the Canal is again to change the course of shipping; to compete to capture a bigger share of the existing trade and encourage more traffic in the new bigger Panamax vessels. Hopefully it has not already missed the boat.