Despite continued concern over Eurozone crisis, with slowly reducing over-tonnage commercialship, newbuilding investment from European countries are expected begun in the second half of 2012.
Moreover, if oil price can be maintained at some $90 (on WTS basis), ordering for offshore production/drilling facilities are to continue until next year.
Analyst Jun Jae-Chun, Daishin Securities of South Korea forecast that shipping finances during H1 was particularly drastic, however, it will slowly recover after the end of June, when is due date for European banks' recapitalization.
Jun analyzed that Korea Big3 shipbuilders' average new order for 2012 and 2013 is more than $11.5bn, 2013 will see 47% more commercial ship order than 2012 and 12% more orders, in value terms, for Samsung Heavy Industries, Hyundai HI and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering. Also, Big3's new order for offshore production facility is expected to be around $13.6bn this year, up by 94% from 2011, and $15.6bn in 2013.
Analyst Oh Sung-Kwon of Kyobo Securities said, "International oil price, which recently dropped to $90, seems to rise up to $100 in the long term, which would be favorable to shipbuilding industries with increasing investment in offshore drilling/production facility."
He added, "In July, Big3 will bring good news, starting with Angolan project, followed by offshore projects in Nigeria, Vietnam, etc.," and forecast, "Amid unstable commercial ship market, Samsung and Daewoo will have no difficulties in achieving yearly new order targets, with majority of offshore plant contracted."
Also, analyst Moon Jung-Up, Daishin Securities analyzed, "Depressed commercial ship newbuilding market will start to slowly recover in H2."