Shipbuilding market will be busy in the second half of 2012, as well, due to investment in offshore project and LNG carrier.
Analyst Kwag Min-Jung, BS Investment & Securities of South Korea forecast, "In the second half, offshore project and LNG carrier would have an effect on shipbuilders' share price."
On the other hand, "Commercial ship sector will still go through a difficult time in H2 2012, amid decreasing newbuilding price and over tonnage."
Product carrier's orderbook to active fleet ratio only remains at 5%, however, with expanding export from the US and new refining facilities being constructed in the Middle East, PC market is expected to recover steadily from H2 2012.
On the contrary, chemical carrier market would get back on the track after 2014. Over the next couple of years, industrial restructuring, such as merger between shipowners, etc., will occur earlier than newbuilding investment.
In case of boxship sector, orderbook of over 8,000-teu stands at 70%, while over 10,000-teu at 50%. Oversupply of larger containership seems to continue for a while. Also, balance between supply and demand would get better in H1 2014, therefore, until then new order won't be expected.
However, Kwag said, "Due to short supply of LNG carrier, newbuilding LNG carrier ordering will steadily be seen until 2013."
Also, "Offshore plant market seems to sharply grow to $320bn in 2020 from $140bn in 2010. Particularly, as yearly average of 24 FPSOs is expected to be newly ordered for the next five years, South Korea's Big3 will become a huge beneficiaries."