Global investment in newbuilding commercial ship is expected to be around 19.8m cgt in 2012, down by 37% year-on-year, but it may jump by 47% y-o-y to 29.2m cgt next year.
Analyst Jun Jae-Chun, Daishin Securities of South Korea explained on May 23, "Ship financing will hit bottom in H1 this year and be recovered next year, along with improved rates. Also, overly booked newbuilding commercial ships during 2006-2008 will be all delivered by next year."
Therefore, Big3 shipbuilders are to gain new orders next year. Jun forecast that if Greek crisis is settled, oil price will remain high and the market will see increased orders for commercial ship, particularly boxship and tanker.
Hyundai HI, Samsung HI and DSME would win $15.1bn on average next year, up 12% from $13.5bn in 2012, he forecast.
Jun prospected, "Greece won't face the worst and leave Eurozone. Then, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will remain over $90 and South Korea shipbuilders can win new orders as expected."
Around $35.9bn, up by 2% year-on-year, will be invested in LNG carrier, deep-sea drilling rig (drillship/semi-submersible rig), offshore production facilities, etc., in 2013.
In case of LNG carrier, 2012 will see 38 newbuildings contracted, down by 27% in numerical terms y-o-y, while next year will see 43 vessels contracted. The US' LNG export is expected to boost up orders for newbuilding LNG carriers.
Moreover, when investment in merchant ship grows in 2013, Hyundai Mipo Dockyard, STX Offshore & Shipbuilding, and Hanjin Heavy Industries & Construction are likely to be the largest beneficiaries. These three yards' combined estimated order intake for this year would total $7.5bn (stand-alone basis, but Hanjin inculdes Subic yard). Their 2013's total order is estimated to be $9.3bn, up by 24%.
Meanwhile, considering that newbuilding price usually grows after seeing a new order rally with six-month interval in between, ship price would steadily rise after hitting the bottom in H1 2013.