Clarksons has questioned the merits of a spate of ordering in the products tanker sector this year.
The world’s largest shipbroker says optimism in the sector has become common place with supply and demand growth expected to align for the first time in half a decade this year.
But it insists the decision to order products tanker newbuildings is not as straightforward as recent activity suggests.
In its latest oil & tanker trades outlook Clarksons explains a rapid increase in US exports is aiding the market and is expected to benefit medium range tankers further.
“In particular, trade volumes on routes from the US to Mexico and South America are projected to increase by 24% year-on-year in 2012 to 1.8m bpd,” Clarksons said.
“This will generate increased demand for MR tankers, and may encourage investors to order MRs in the near future.”
It notes however that the Atlantic trader is likely to be hindered by a recession in Europe while the MR orderbook up until 2015 is the largest in the sector.
Coated long range tankers are also being looked at given the rise in US exports this year and the impact of refinery closures.
“However, the LR fleet may be bolstered by uncoated tankers competing for dirty products. Thus, owners who invest in LRs risk seeing potential trade volumes decline as uncoated vessels take market share,” Clarksons said.
As a result Clarksons warns opportunities in the products tanker market are more complex that previously considered.
“While product tanker demand as a whole is likely to increase in 2012 and 2013, whether and what owners should order remains difficult to judge,” it said.
"Increasing US product exports may increase MR demand going south, or transatlantic, while US East Coast import requirements may eventually stimulate LR demand.
“However, in both cases, there may be ways for the existing fleet to accommodate some of the extra demand. What, and when, to order, is as difficult a choice as ever.”