Fearnleys Week 20 2011

Source:Fearnleys
2011.05.19
967

TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
Even though the list of available VLCCs in the MEG is now slightly shorter than it was previously, it is still more than sufficient to provide charterers with enough offers to maintain rates more or less at last done levels, and, in fact, some charterers achieved new lows on MEG/West voyages. May positions should be more or less covered with about 119 fixtures, and we now see June stems coming into play. With more interest now in MEG/ West voyages it can only be hoped that this longer employment will help to reduce  tonnage  availability somewhat.  The  Atlantic  Suezmax  market  was active during the last week with rates in WAF peaking at the ws95 level as charterers sought to cover end May cargoes. Now that the rush is coming to a close, however, activity is slowing and rates are softer. Suezmaxes in the Med/Bsea area are also facing a similar situation with rather less activity and declining rates. During the last week there were few changes to report for Aframaxes trading in the Nsea and the Caribs whilst in the Med/Bsea an increase in activity caused rates to rise by about 10 ws points.
Product
On the back of a very long tonnage list, freight rates finally took a tumble this  week,  pushing  rates  for  MRs  down  to  ws180  for  UKC/USAC  basis 37kt. Many larger ships have been cleared out with LR1s Baltic/USAC keeping steady at around ws140 basis 60kt. The smaller Handies trading across  NWEurope are  not  unaffected  by  the  MRs,  pushing  rates  further down to ws170 basis 30kt. Flexis cross-Cont are softer at ws205 basis 22kt. Stateside rates are also coming under pressure with Caribs upcoast fixing at ws160 basis 38kt, backhaul voyages USG/UKC-Med softer around ws100 level basis 38kt. The clean tanker market East of Suez has remained stable over the last week. For LR1s trading MEG/JPN fixtures are being concluded at ws142.5 basis 55kt. On the LR2s, we have seen a softer market, now fixing  at  ws125  basis  75kt  on  the  same  route.  This  level  is  expected  to remain steady in the coming week. Rates for Jet fuel liftings MEG/UKC basis 65kt has remained steady over the last week, and still fixing at USDM 2.05. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws150 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are seeing rates around ws155 basis 35kt.

DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
The Atlantic is marked by volatility and very positional, nevertheless USG, NCSA, Cont remain strong thanks to the petcoke, grains and scrap but the flooding in the Mississippi could have a negative effect on the market. The S.Atlantic is a bit more active and seeing more and more tonnage ballasting from Med. The Bl.Sea is difficult for Supras. Trips to Feast are at 20k+400k levels. Outlook: Steady. Pacific market remains quiet. For Indo-India, Supras in N.China gets close to 13k. Nickel-ore rounds get firm rates in high teens from Indonesia. Also many owns prefer to do now Indo coal or nickel ore to China rather than going to India owing to monsoons. WCI-China rates slided to 15k and from ECI around 13k, but few ships seen ballasting to Indo as not much cargoes ex-ECI. Red Sea, ferts on handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/ India round now asking 15k. Short period deals done at mid-teens for large Supras.
Panamax
Another  relatively slow  week  still  shoving  some  activity  from  EC  South America,  but  some  fix  and  failures  as  market  clearly  is  in  a  downward trend. Rates nudged up to the mid USD 25k daily range and around USD500k bonus on the run to the eastern hemisphere. For Transtlantic business the pressure on the Continent for prompt tonnage seems to ease and rates on average around the 13k mark. Rates in the Far East also heading south with spot-prompt ships struggling to find cover from any fresh orders as rates descend closer to the 10k level. Period business very limited and the forward market now rating the next 18 months just under USD 12k/day. Other segments not adding any support or fuelling a bearish sentiment.
Capesize
During the past week, 2 more 12-month period deals have been done at a lower USD 11500. Even as new lows are reached the volume is thin. The recent fall in bunker prices has not come to the owners benefit, but rather to the charterers. Rates across the board have fallen during the last 7 days and today  the  weakest  market  is  the  in  the  Atlantic.  With  the  present  spot market charterers are also struggling to make sense of taking short period vessels as it is difficult to recover the premium vis-a-vis the spot market.

GAS
CHARTERING
There were a handful fixtures last week, but the VLGC spot market is best characterized as somewhat muted, probably more driven by obligations than perceived interesting trading opportunities by charterers. The spot rate Ras Tanura  to  Chiba  took  a  further  dip  and  as  low  as  USD  43  pmt  was confirmed -the lowest nominal spot level since February. On a modern, flexible  VLGC  this  rate  equals  between  USD  14  and  15,000  per  day, needless to say a level miles away from the expectations owners had only a few weeks ago. The Baltic VLGC freight index turned upwards on the 17th of  May  following  14 consecutive  daily  assessments  in  red,  but  several players are not convinced that this turn of Baltic index represents much of a turn of actual freight rates ahead. Was it a correction only or was it because nearly half a dozen excess vessels were booked? How will Saudi-Aramcos cut  in  June  butane  nominations  impact  the  market?  How  clear  and determined will the independent owners be on their minimum fixable rates over the next few weeks?

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
Newbuilding activity is slowing down this week. Besides an option declared by  Pacific  International  Lines,  the  Chinese  setup,  Shanghai  North  Sea, secured to Aframax tankers from Guangzhou Longxue. Although an apparent slow down, prices seems to increase slightly. Most of the major yards are comfortable with current order back-log.

DEMOLITION

MARKET BRIEF

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