Fearnleys Week 19 2011

Source:Fearnleys
2011.05.12
898

TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
As  the  week  progressed  charterers  showed  increasing  interest  in  seeking VLCC  spot  coverage,  and  owners  seized  this  opportunity  to  try  to  drive rates upwards, but their efforts have so far been in vain. Given the increase in bunker prices, owners´ daily earnings have, in fact, been reduced. With a well-stocked MEG VLCC tonnage list, owners have little chance to secure rate improvements unless a particular charterer has some special requirement limiting choice. The Atlantic VLCC market remained steady with no change in current rate levels. With a modest amount of activity prevailing, Suezmax rates in WAF weakened, particularly at the beginning of the week. The Med/ Bsea Suezmax market also exhibited a softer trend, and we don´t expect to see  any  firming  in  this  market  until  activity  resumes  in  earnest.  For Aframaxes trading in the Med/Bsea rates continued to stagnate at breakeven levels  in  a  market  where  there  were  not  enough  cargoes  to  effect  any changes. In the Nsea and the Baltic Aframax rates are also making their way downwards, and with the ice season now at an end rates in this segment could soften even further. Even though there are still cargoes to be worked, the size of the tonnage list keeps charterers firmly in the driver´s seat.
Product
Further  pressure  has  been  put  on  the  freight  rates  in  the  West,  with  the going  rate  for  MR  vessels  now  hovering  around  ws220  for  UKC/USAC basis 37kt. The position list is fairly long, with many ballasters coming in from both WAFR and USAC. Larger tonnage is seeing hectic activity with many cargoes shipped down to WAFR. Rates are not moving though, with LR1s Baltic/USAC keeping steady at around ws140 basis 60kt. Handies trading across NWEurope are under continued pressure with many spot vsls, pushing  rates  down  to  ws185  basis  30kt.  Flexis  cross-Cont  are  stable  at ws210 basis 22kt. Activity is picking up in the Med and ex Black Sea, with rates around ws220 for cross-Med biz. Stateside rates keep slipping with Caribs upcoast fixing at ws175 basis 38kt, and backhaul voyages USG/UKC- Med slipping to ws110 level basis 38kt. The clean tanker market East of Suez  remains  stable  this  week.  For  LR1s  trading  MEG/JPN  fixtures  are being concluded at ws142.5 basis 55kt. On the LR2s, we have seen a flat market still fixing at WS 128 basis 75kt on the same route. We expect the market to remain at these levels in the near term. Rates for Jet fuel liftings MEG/UKC basis 65kt are now fixing at USD 2.05 million. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws152.5 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are seeing rates around ws162.5 basis 35kt.

 

DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
Stable/flat with positive undertone in the Atlantic meaning more enquiry hitting  the  market  today.  Lack  of  prompt  vessels.  Trips  to  the  Far  East around usd 22-25k per day for Supras nevertheless a lot of actors are still assessing  the  market´s  direction.  The  Pacific  market  remains  quiet  with holiday in Korea and monsoon setting soon in India closing WCI iron ore activity. For Indo-India, Supras in North China are getting close to 13.5k. WCI-China rates slided to 15k and from ECI around 13k but few ships seen ballasting to Indonesia as not much cargoes ex-ECI. Red Sea, ferts on Handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/India round now asking 15k. Not too much activity on short period as market bit volatile and speculative and hear index type vessels fixed at mid-teens.
Panamax
The increase in activity and rates especially in the Atlantic from mid last week  dropped  somewhat  as  from  beginning  this  week.  T/a  now  largely steady and owners more reasonable and willing to repeat last done. More coal in Atlantic was the main reason for the positive upswing with rates pending between 15-16k. For ESCA the grain is still main driver with levels between 25,000 -26,500 + bb 550-600k. As more and more spot Capes offering  in  on  Panamax  stems,  where  this  is  possible,  the  result  can influence negative on Panamax as well and predictions for coming weeks are more conservative. I the Far East rounds paying 14k and short period tic more.
Capesize
The week has been fairly quiet, with steady levels. Although freight levels slightly  down,  levels  are  flat  due  to  lower  bunker  prices.  Still  a  good number of ballasters and some vessels waiting outside Brazil, with lack of fronthaul cargoes for May dates. For West Australia to China, levels remain unchanged around usd 7.50 pmt, last done today usd 7.40 pmt by FMG. It seems people in general accepting the difficult and challenging state of the Cape market, and that the situation will remain for some time.

 

GAS
CHARTERING
It has been a reasonably eventful week in the VLGC market and more than anything else characterized by somewhat softer rates and a wait-and-see attitude. LPG prices have been rather jumpy lately - a reflection of crude movements - therefore there hasn´t really been any incentive to trade and charter  too  much  physically.  The  latest  fixtures  MEG/Far  East  were concluded around USD 47.00 pmt which equals to about USD 17,500 per day.  At  the  same  time  some  MEG/India  sub-fixtures  return  considerably higher numbers -  the West market is also talked higher than the current MEG/Far East rates. The Baltic VLGC index has been in red every single day since before Easter, latest posted around the USD 47 mark bss Ras Tanura/Chiba,  actually  the  lowest  number  since  the  beginning  of  March. There is no doubt there are more vessels than cargoes in the remainder of May which means only independent Owners´ can set the foot down and resist the downward freight movements as observed lately.

 

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
LNG is still in the hot seat, 5 LNG carries confirmed this week. All together 17 newbuildings reported, however, several of these are options or order swaps which have only recently been confirmed. Maran Gas swapped its existing VLCC order into LNG carriers at DSME, while Hong Kong based OOCL  declared  a  option  for  a  series  mega  sized  container  carriers  at Samsung. Although little activity on the tanker and bulker side, newbuilding prices seems to be moving slightly up due to steel price and the currency situation.

 

DEMOLITION

 

MARKET BRIEF

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