Fearnleys Week 19 2011
TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
As the week progressed charterers showed increasing interest in seeking VLCC spot coverage, and owners seized this opportunity to try to drive rates upwards, but their efforts have so far been in vain. Given the increase in bunker prices, owners´ daily earnings have, in fact, been reduced. With a well-stocked MEG VLCC tonnage list, owners have little chance to secure rate improvements unless a particular charterer has some special requirement limiting choice. The Atlantic VLCC market remained steady with no change in current rate levels. With a modest amount of activity prevailing, Suezmax rates in WAF weakened, particularly at the beginning of the week. The Med/ Bsea Suezmax market also exhibited a softer trend, and we don´t expect to see any firming in this market until activity resumes in earnest. For Aframaxes trading in the Med/Bsea rates continued to stagnate at breakeven levels in a market where there were not enough cargoes to effect any changes. In the Nsea and the Baltic Aframax rates are also making their way downwards, and with the ice season now at an end rates in this segment could soften even further. Even though there are still cargoes to be worked, the size of the tonnage list keeps charterers firmly in the driver´s seat.
Product
Further pressure has been put on the freight rates in the West, with the going rate for MR vessels now hovering around ws220 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. The position list is fairly long, with many ballasters coming in from both WAFR and USAC. Larger tonnage is seeing hectic activity with many cargoes shipped down to WAFR. Rates are not moving though, with LR1s Baltic/USAC keeping steady at around ws140 basis 60kt. Handies trading across NWEurope are under continued pressure with many spot vsls, pushing rates down to ws185 basis 30kt. Flexis cross-Cont are stable at ws210 basis 22kt. Activity is picking up in the Med and ex Black Sea, with rates around ws220 for cross-Med biz. Stateside rates keep slipping with Caribs upcoast fixing at ws175 basis 38kt, and backhaul voyages USG/UKC- Med slipping to ws110 level basis 38kt. The clean tanker market East of Suez remains stable this week. For LR1s trading MEG/JPN fixtures are being concluded at ws142.5 basis 55kt. On the LR2s, we have seen a flat market still fixing at WS 128 basis 75kt on the same route. We expect the market to remain at these levels in the near term. Rates for Jet fuel liftings MEG/UKC basis 65kt are now fixing at USD 2.05 million. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws152.5 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are seeing rates around ws162.5 basis 35kt.

DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
Stable/flat with positive undertone in the Atlantic meaning more enquiry hitting the market today. Lack of prompt vessels. Trips to the Far East around usd 22-25k per day for Supras nevertheless a lot of actors are still assessing the market´s direction. The Pacific market remains quiet with holiday in Korea and monsoon setting soon in India closing WCI iron ore activity. For Indo-India, Supras in North China are getting close to 13.5k. WCI-China rates slided to 15k and from ECI around 13k but few ships seen ballasting to Indonesia as not much cargoes ex-ECI. Red Sea, ferts on Handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/India round now asking 15k. Not too much activity on short period as market bit volatile and speculative and hear index type vessels fixed at mid-teens.
Panamax
The increase in activity and rates especially in the Atlantic from mid last week dropped somewhat as from beginning this week. T/a now largely steady and owners more reasonable and willing to repeat last done. More coal in Atlantic was the main reason for the positive upswing with rates pending between 15-16k. For ESCA the grain is still main driver with levels between 25,000 -26,500 + bb 550-600k. As more and more spot Capes offering in on Panamax stems, where this is possible, the result can influence negative on Panamax as well and predictions for coming weeks are more conservative. I the Far East rounds paying 14k and short period tic more.
Capesize
The week has been fairly quiet, with steady levels. Although freight levels slightly down, levels are flat due to lower bunker prices. Still a good number of ballasters and some vessels waiting outside Brazil, with lack of fronthaul cargoes for May dates. For West Australia to China, levels remain unchanged around usd 7.50 pmt, last done today usd 7.40 pmt by FMG. It seems people in general accepting the difficult and challenging state of the Cape market, and that the situation will remain for some time.

GAS
CHARTERING
It has been a reasonably eventful week in the VLGC market and more than anything else characterized by somewhat softer rates and a wait-and-see attitude. LPG prices have been rather jumpy lately - a reflection of crude movements - therefore there hasn´t really been any incentive to trade and charter too much physically. The latest fixtures MEG/Far East were concluded around USD 47.00 pmt which equals to about USD 17,500 per day. At the same time some MEG/India sub-fixtures return considerably higher numbers - the West market is also talked higher than the current MEG/Far East rates. The Baltic VLGC index has been in red every single day since before Easter, latest posted around the USD 47 mark bss Ras Tanura/Chiba, actually the lowest number since the beginning of March. There is no doubt there are more vessels than cargoes in the remainder of May which means only independent Owners´ can set the foot down and resist the downward freight movements as observed lately.

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
LNG is still in the hot seat, 5 LNG carries confirmed this week. All together 17 newbuildings reported, however, several of these are options or order swaps which have only recently been confirmed. Maran Gas swapped its existing VLCC order into LNG carriers at DSME, while Hong Kong based OOCL declared a option for a series mega sized container carriers at Samsung. Although little activity on the tanker and bulker side, newbuilding prices seems to be moving slightly up due to steel price and the currency situation.

DEMOLITION

MARKET BRIEF



