Orders for newbuilding commercial ship would pick up from the second half this year, as the ratio of orderbook to current fleet of small-and-medium size product carrier and small size containership just remains at 5%.
Analyst Jun Yong-Bum, Solomon Investment & Securities said on February 22nd, "Shipbuilders' earnings started to slow down from the fourth quarter 2011." 
Shipowners have settled to sell more of the old vessels for scrap since 2009 and 2012 would break a highest record seen in 1985.
According to Jun, newbuilding and second-hand vessel prices are dropping as much as seen in 1980s after Oil Shock, which are very attractive to owners.
During a clouded market, though, several types or sizes of ships are slowly entering state of recovery, small-medium PCs and small containerships are likely to be contracted significantly as soon as H2 2012.