Despite of BDI’s straight increase to current five-month high, global shipping and shipbuilding industry still hover over historical low. Global shipbuilding industry has now hit its new low since 2008 considering the two key indices - new orders and orderbook.
Pursuant to the database of Clarkson, totally 16.77m CGT new vessels were ordered internationally in the first six months, less than half of the volume for 2010.
According to recent research from Shenyin Wanguo Securities(SWS), the new orders came up to 2.58m DWT in July, diving by 81% compared with the same period last year. The total volume from January to July stood at 43.02m DWT, falling by 47% against the corresponding period of previous year. In this report, SWS lower the 2011 annual new order expectation from 100m DWT to 80m DWT. 
Analyst from SWS pointed out that current bulker price has fallen to the level in 2004 and are unlikely to rebound in short terms.
Vice director of China Shipbuilding industry economy research center Bao Zhangjing says that present international shipbuilding turnover, ship price and shipping market are all in a recession. Ship owners are reluctant to take deliver of new vessel as scheduled due to the sluggish shipping market, which further aggravates shipbuilders’ financing difficulties. Besides, declining ship price and increasing newbuilding cost also squeeze their profit margin. She thinks that the current downturn is mainly caused by weak economic recovery, inadequate trading demand, depressing shipping market as well as the growing overcapacity of bulk, oil and container capability.
According to CANSI’s statistics, in the first half of this year over half of domestic shipyards keep zero order record and many shipyards are expected to stay idle for running out of orderbook.
CIC (China Investment Cooperation) analyst forecast continuing downturn for global shipbuilding in the second half of 2011 taking the current shrinking trading, shipping demand reduction and overall pessimistic expectations.
Ms. Bao supports the viewpoint and predicts even more severe conditions of shipbuilding industry for the second half. The above negative factors will still last, and more deliveries would also further break the even between cargo demand and transportation capacity. All these would further hit the current vulnerable shipbuilding industry.