Global shipyards could be forced to cut newbuilding prices as the pressure mounts to fill yard capacity, Clarksons says.
VLCC newbuilding prices have remained above $100m and Capesizes' above $50m despite the downturn as shipbuilders still have enough work to keep them going for the next couple of years, according to Clarkson Research Services head Martin Stopford. 
“The shipyards have worked hard to keep prices firm, and with good reason.
"Apart from cutting their slim margins on new contracts, low newbuilding prices undermine the value of the ships under construction, making it harder for the shipyards’ customers to raise the finance they need to take delivery of the ships.
"It's a vicious circle which everyone, including the banks, wants to avoid,” he says.
As a result bargain newbuilding orders are not found this year during the market downturn. But all that could be about to change as yards are forced to ponder how they will keep business rolling in beyond the next two years.
“Many yards still have enough work in hand to be selective about contracts. But the order rate of 2.5m CGT per month so far this year is half the requirement to fill capacity and the yards will soon need to more than double their order intake,” he said.
Orders for high end ships such as offshore vessels and LNG carriers, which have been in vogue during the first half of the year are not enough to fill the gap so yard owners will have no choice but to book more tankers, bulkers and containerships if they want to stay busy, Stopford says.
“They must find a way to keep their customers, the shipowners, placing record orders.”
He adds: “And there are plenty of “value investors” willing to take a long-term view on quality assets, especially if they can combine a sharp price with the right regulatory and environmental certificates.
“So the yards might get lucky. But their luck might not be good luck for the investors.”