Clarkson: Dry Bulk Orders Plunging

Source:Clarkson
2015.05.13
1302

In the January to April period, dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4 million dwt per month, the lowest level seen since the 1990s, according to the latest market review released by Clarkson Research.

"This is a massive 98% reduction from the 23 million dwt peak in orders in December 2007, and probably the sharpest decline in recent decades. Not really a surprise in a market where Capesize bulkers are struggling to earn USD 4,000/day, but a timely relief to investors with ships on the orderbook," said Dr Martin Stopford, President of Clarkson Research Services Limited.

The spectacular run of dry bulk investment which commenced in early 2003 has finally ended. Then China's imports were growing at 27% per year, a big difference from the 3% growth in 2014.

Clarksons' data showed that during the last decade, 724 million dwt of new bulke carriers have been ordered, around 70m dwt/year. On average that was about 20m dwt/year during the previous decade.

"The collapse in bulkcarrier investment is a particular problem for shipyards. Many builders in China and Japan surfed the wave of bulkcarrier investment and bulkers still account for around half of tonnage on order globally. In today's sluggish world economy, that is going to be a difficult gap to fill. The fact that bulker prices are around 5% down this year, and ordering has virtually stopped tells its own story," Stopford added.

Aside to downturn in newbuild order books, the activity on the demolition market is off to a good start in 2015 which is expected to bring more balance to supply-demand ratio and eventually higher rates.

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