The sudden rise in boxship newbuilding orders saw this year has pushed the orderbook in comparison to the existing fleet up to 29.2%.
Since the start of 2011, vessels with capacity totalling 1.5m teu have been confirmed as contracted, according to Maersk Broker in its latest monthly report.
“We expect this number to increase as further contracts are under firm negotiations,” it said.
In turn it has increased its estimate for full contracting in 2011 to 2m teu, from a previous forecast of 1.5m.
The orderbook gain in July alone pushed contracts compared to the fleet up 1.3% from 27.9% at end June to 29.2% at the end of last month, with extra orders likely to see that number grow again.
“As stated in the past, we consider a level above 30% to indicate ‘over-building’,” the Maersk Broker report said.
After 399,000 teu of capacity delivered this year in the 11,000 teu plus vessel size range, as well as 173,000 teu still set to enter service before year-end, total 2011 growth in this sector is estimated at 84%, with capacity reaching a total 1.2m teu, the Maersk Broker report said.
By comparison, vessel sizes between 1,300-10,999 teu are expected to see capacity increases between 1%-13% this year, and ship sectors under 1,299 teu will experience negative growth.
In total, Maersk Broker estimates overall fleet growth at 8.8% this year, with total global capacity reaching nearly 15.4m teu by end-2011.
South Korea remains the most popular country to build larger containerships in, while Chinese builders remain the forerunners at the opposite end of the size spectrum, the report said.
However, with much of the focus in recent months on larger vessels, it is expected that owners and operators will start looking to order in the smaller size range soon — most likely between 1,700-3,000 teu.
Compared with July 2010, estimated newbuild prices for 8,200 teu gearless boxships were down around 6% to an average $88m.
In contrast, prices of small vessels under 2,000 teu appear to have risen, with the price of an average 1,700 teu geared boxship up 5.6% since July 2010 to $28.5m last month.