Fearnleys Week 30 2011
TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
VLCC owners were not afforded any relief by the current market, and matters were made worse by charterers being able to obtain rates either the same as those seen previously or, in some cases, even lower in spite of an increase in bunker prices. There is growing concern that some owners will be unable to withstand the impact of such low earnings much longer. The Suezmax markets in WAF and in the Med/Bsea were not as active this week as last, and rates declined accordingly. With the recent increase in bunker prices daily earnings for Suezmaxes are close to a low for the year. Nonetheless, we feel that Suezmax rates have now reached the bottom. Aframax rates in the Nsea remained unchanged from last week, and activity was steady in this market. In the Med, however, Aframax activity declined as did rates. There was rather more activity for Aframaxes trading in the Caribs upcoast market, and rates increased by about 10 ws points to ws115.
Product
Volatility has been minuscule in the transatlantic market this week, with fixtures stable at ws147.5 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. With no arbitrage open and a lack of WAFR cargoes, the outlook is relatively flat in the short term. The larger ships are still in dire straits, with LR1s trading Baltic/USAC taking another leg down to ws105 basis 60kt. Little has changed on the smaller tonnage; Handies trading across NWEurope are still fixing ws150 basis 30kt, with Flexis softer at ws175 basis 22kt. Looking at the bright side, stateside things have firmed up, and upcoast voyages are now fixing at ws155 basis 38kt, with backhaul voyages USG/UKC-Med at ws100 level basis 38kt. The clean product tanker market East of Suez has remained steady over the last week. Tonnage availability on the LR1s is reduced on prompt dates and there are still cargo enquiries. LR1s trading MEG/JPN are now fixing steadily at ws127.5+ basis 55kt. On the LR2s, tonnage availability is even tighter, and are now fixing at ws127.5 basis 75kt. For LR1s lifting jet fuel MEG/UKC, the market has moved sideways still fixing at USD 2.0 million basis 65kt. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws147 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are still seeing rates around ws143 basis 35kt.
DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
The Atlantic is soft across all segments with little fresh enquiry and tonnage piling up with rates in mid 20´s for Supras back to Feast via Aden. Black Sea is ´dead´ and mainly supported by the odd grain cargo. Most tonnage prefers to stay in Atlantic thus there is more and more ballasters competing at Gibraltar. Same situation on the Continent where tonnage is struggling to find good business. Outlook: soft. The Pacific remains quiet with not much change. For Indo-India, Supras in south China are getting close to 12k. Nickel- ore rounds are getting firm rates in low mid-teens. Very quiet on iron ore front due to monsoons as WCI-China rates slided to 10k and from ECI around 9k. RBCT biz fixed on ECI tonnage around 10k. Red Sea, ferts on handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Period deals done at 12k for large Supras.
Panamax
The Panamax market had a slow start to the week with little business being reported. Seems there are more cargoes in the market, however some owners seem reluctant to fix at current levels. The period market has been non- existing. Vessels being fixed for Tarvs are now getting tick above USD 14k while the fronthauls are being fixed in region of USD 21k. In the Pacific we see a slight rate increase compared to last week with rounds being fixed at USD 8,600 while backhauls are being fixed at a poor USD 4k.
Capesize
Summer doldrums prevailing, with limited volumes traded and levels softening slowly. Atlantic being dull and without much direction - a softer USD11,500 done for transatlantic round on nice 181kdwt/built 2010 and the Tubarao/Qingdao fronthaul conference trade hovering around an uninspiring USD 19.25/19.50 pmt. Pacific spot also suffering from a similar lack of fresh volumes, with the main climate indicator trade Dampier/Qingdao remaining stuck in the dismal USD 7.75/7.85 pmt-region. Little joy is expected short-term, as the number of ballasters heading west remains steady and possibly increasing. Period activity very limited, partly due to major players being absent - representative conclusions include 169kdwt/blt 2010 done for 5-8 months at around USD 11,400/day basis prompt China delivery.
GAS
CHARTERING
There were not too many fixtures confirmed since our last Wednesday´s report, but it was made up for by the freight rates. Until the middle of August there are very few and expensive VLGCs available which partly explains why there were fairly few fixtures concluded. In addition the market took a pause prior to announcements of posted August prices, which should come out over the next few days. At the end of the freight rally, the Ras Tanura/Chiba benchmark rate had increased by USD 10 from 55 to 65 USD per ton. The latter returns solid USD 35,000 per day on a modern 82,000 cbm vessel despite the fact that HFO bunkers lately was sold at over USD 700 per ton. This net timecharter equivalent is the highest seen the last three years, since August 2008. The big question is now whether the current level can be sustained ahead - we do sense that there is some scepticism in all "camps". On the other hand most players seem to agree that if/when rates turn down, they will not fall neither steeply nor go all the way down (to 40- ies) in the short term.
NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
Slow newbuilding activity over the past week with only one shipyard reporting firm orders. Hyundai Samho has secured orders of 5 Container vessels from the Greek Owners Technomar Shipping and the Embiricos- controlled Aeolos Management. All ships to be delivered within 1st half 2013. Aker Philadelphia Shipyard is close to secure an order of 2 Aframax tankers from the ExxonMobil affiliate SeaRiver Maritime. The deal should be sealed by end of 3rd quarter. Both vessels slated for delivery in 2014.
DEMOLITION
MARKET BRIEF