Containership owners retained the upper hand in the newbuilding market, a far cry from the trend seen in the tanker and bulker arenas.
That has left shipbuilders eager to land orders from liner operators who have signed contracts worth billions of dollars in recent months and look set to spend more in the coming weeks, brokers are predicting.
Activity has been dominated by Maersk Line’s order for 20 Triple-E ships, now said to have a nominal capacity of 18,300 teu.
Neptune Orient Lines is another high-profile buyer, having placed an order for a 10-strong series of 14,000 teu units at a reported $127m apiece.
Maersk Broker estimates that the orderbook now stands at 27.9% of the existing fleet compared with 27.5% at the end of May. At one stage in 2007, it reached 60%.
The Danish firm expects to upgrade its current forecast for new orders inked in 2011 from 1.5m teu to 2m teu next month. Fleet capacity is expected to grow by 9% this year and next, with 10.7% projected for 2013.
However, with shipyards being forced to reorganise and possibly slow down production schedules because of the challenging tanker and dry cargo markets, this may cause further slippage of deliveries, says Maersk Broker. That could affect containerships as well as other vessel types. Nevertheless, consultancy firm Alphaliner is raising concern about deliveries scheduled for 2013 and beyond.
“Most carriers continue to pile up new vessel orders and the order wave does not appear to be coming to an end any time soon,” the firm notes.
Alphaliner is forecasting deliveries of 1.73m teu in 2013, a figure that could rise further as some yards are still offering 2013 delivery slots. These vessels will be delivered when the market is still absorbing the surplus built up over the past couple of years.
Alphaliner’s demand versus supply index shows that the capacity overhang currently stands at around 13% of the total fleet, implying an excess capacity of almost 2m teu. The reactivation of idle tonnage, that is now down to 120,000 teu from 1.5m teu at the peak, is adding to the imbalance, says Alphaliner. This surplus is forecast to continue for at least two years, given falling demand expectations, Alphaliner warns.