Fearnleys Week 28 2011

Source:Fearnleys
2011.07.14
896

TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
An active week in all respects for the VLCC´s and predominantly in the MEG where many had thought the monthly volumes would be lower than previous  months.  As  we  are  about  to  finalize  the  July  lifting  program statistics actually show a month in line with the previous active months this year. Rates remain under pressure simply due to an oversupply of tonnage, though with a general feeling that we are at or close to the bottom. The daily returns are hence meager with limited upward potential in the near future. Rates for Suezmax improved the past week as the activity picked up resulting in a thinning position list for second decade. West Africa is still relatively active but some charterers managed to re-arrange their cargo windows while others was looking at space share on VLCCS in order to dampen the evident increase in rates. At the time of writing, the West Africa market has increased about 5 points while Black Sea and MED enjoyed an increase of about 10 points. The North Sea and Baltic Aframax markets saw slightly better numbers last week. This week we got off to a slow start and the build-up of available tonnage resulted in a negative correction in both segments. Despite a bullish start to the week, Med and Bsea rates remained unchanged as supply sill overcomes charterers demand.
Product
Fresh cargoes going Transatlantic have been few and far between this week. Initially it looked to firm up, but with scarce activity, no arbitrage open and FFA for next month sold down, rates are flat at ws150 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. The LR1s trading Baltic/USAC are not much better, with flat rates at ws110 basis 60kt. Trading cross Cont is also stable, Handies across NWEurope fixing ws150 basis 30kt, with Flexis softer at ws185 basis 22kt. Elsewhere in the states, Caribs and USG activity is under continued pressure, with up coast voyages fixing at ws150 basis 38kt, backhaul voyages USG/ UKC-Med at ws90 level basis 38kt. Next week we expect to see a continued flat  trend  for  clean  tonnage  in  the  West,  as  the  MR  position  list  looks sufficient to cover whatever requirements may come. East of Suez remains fairly flat and quiet, with LR1s trading MEG/JPN still fixing at WS 122.5 basis  55kt.  For  the  LR2s  trading  on  the  same  route,  there  is  not  much activity to be reported and fixtures are being concluded at WS 117.5 basis 75kt. The trend remains flat for both sizes. LR1s fixing Jet fuel MEG/UKC have softened to USD 1.95 million basis 65kt. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws145 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are still seeing rates around ws145 basis 35kt.

DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
Business from USG to Cont/Med farily healty but nervous going forward.Overall the Atlantic activity is on the low side with a negative undertone as number of open positions seems to increase. Some shortage of tonnage in the South Atlantaic with the same trend as further north - rates are softening. Pacific market remains quiet. For Indo-India, supras in South China are getting close to 10k. Nickel-ore rounds are getting firm rates in low teens. Very quiet on iron ore front due to monsoons as WCI-China, rates slid to 10k and from ECI around 9k. Little Indian tonnage seen ballasting to Indonesia and RBCT. As a result, RBCT biz fixed on APS at around 20k. Red Sea, ferts on handymax/ supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voy bss to WC India. Period deals done at 13k for large supras.
Panamax
Overall the market is suffering from low activity and a bearsih sentiment where Charterers are holding back to book. North Atlantic rates remain realtively flat above the mid teens with a fine balance between fresh requirements and open positions. In the South Atalntic the almost stable 25 + 500 level gradually seems to disappear as the area clearly is suffering from an increasing number of ballasters from the east. In the Pacific the trend from last week continues. Levels in the 9,000 area and fresh buisines mainly represented by some coal from Indonesiea to China. Otherwise low activity and volumes for more open positions in the Far East. With a slowly sliding FFA  market and  summer holidays in  Europe coming, the forecast is  not exactly thrilling.
Capesize
After a short period where owner seems to be deciding the direction and rates kept improving, the air suddenly was out of the balloon end last week. So far this week the big ones have not appeared in the market for West Australia/China, resulting in rates dropping from usd 8.65 to usd low 8s (based on sentiment and lack of fixtures). The front haul rates have however remained steady arnd usd 20.50 bss Tub/Gd, but expected to decrease as less West Australia fixtures resulting in more ballasters. Period marked is steady, with short period rates arnd usd 12,000 dly.

GAS
CHARTERING
Our predictions in our latest weekly were proven correct when both spot rates and the Baltic VLGC index were given a solid push up this week. The rates broke through the USD 50 per ton barrier for the first time in a couple of months, and some conditional optimism has returned. The highest confirmed fixture in the low USD 50´s pmt basis RT/Chiba returns just over USD 23,000 per day on a modern full-size VLGC, a level not much below the highest so far in 2011. The spot market has improved rather fast on the back of quite a few fixtures, however, a couple of weeks ago it was obvious that fewer VLGCs than normal would be available for July spot loading. The independent owners in control of nearly all those vessels can hardly be blamed for taking advantage of this momentum - hence the spot market improved 10% last week. By the look of it there will hardly be any tonnage overhang from July into August, and as some early August freight inquiries are already floated, the owners will surf on this wave for a few weeks more.

 

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
Still some activity in the midst of the summer months. In addition the reoccurring container and LNG contracts, two separate Heavy Lift orders were confirmed this week. Both Jumbo Shipping and Hong Kong based, United Faith Group, placed orders in Croatia and China respectively.

 

DEMOLITION

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