Fearnleys Week 27 2011
TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
History appears to be repeating itself as VLCC activity remained at a minimum and firmly under the control of charterers during the past week. As the list of available tonnage increased, rates remain under downward pressure, and a further negative correction was made on benchmark routes. There seem to be few bright spots on the horizon for VLCC owners trading the in the MEG or in the Atlantic in the immediate future, although the downside rate potential is quite limited due to already meagre daily returns owners are compelled to accept. The WAF Suezmax market was uneventful during the past week, but in the wake of the long 4th of July weekend in the U.S., a number of American charterers showed more interest in coverage and Suezmax activity picked up. The same was true for Suezmaxes trading in the Med/Bsea, but so far these increases in activity have failed to raise Suezmax rate levels in either of these sectors due to the oversupply of tonnage. Aframaxes trading in the Nsea and the Baltic have had a relatively pleasant week so far with rates improving against a plentiful list of cargoes. The market will probably stabilize around present levels as fewer cargoes are expected at the end of the month due to refinery maintenance. Bunker prices are still dictating the bottom of the market in the Med/Bsea, and we expect rates in these areas to remain soft due to the plentiful supply of tonnage.
Product
As the days go by, the rates slowly slip in the West, and transatlantic rates for MRs are now back down to ws147.5 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. While there is at least some volatility and volume to be had on the MRs, the situation is the opposite with LR1s trading Baltic/USAC completely flat at ws110 basis 60kt. Smaller tonnage is also flat across the board, with Handies trading across NWEurope at ws155 basis 30kt, and Flexis at ws190 basis 22kt. Looking across the pond, Caribs and USG activity seems to be under pressure, with upcoast voyages fixing at ws155 basis 38kt and backhaul voyages USG/UKC-Med at ws95 level basis 38kt. We continue to see a flat trend for clean tonnage in the West. There has been a softening tendency in the clean tanker market East of Suez over the last week. Cargo enquiries have come down, and tonnage availability is yet again on the rise. For the LR1s trading MEG/JPN, the market has remained relatively flat, with a soft undertone, now fixing at ws122.5 basis 55kt. For the LR2s trading on the same route, the recent firming market has now slowed down and fixtures are now being concluded at ws117.5 basis 75kt. For the upcoming week, we expect a sideways movement in both segments. For LR1s fixing Jet fuel MEG/UKC, the market has remained steady, and still fixing at USD 2.1 million basis 65kt. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws145 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are seeing rates around ws145 basis 35kt.

DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
A quiet market with low activity for Supramax in the Atlantic this week, in particular for Cont/Med positions. NCSA-USG spot/prompt loaders also struggling to find employment. Ballasters from Indian Ocean adding pressure to the South Atlantic resulting in an overall negative trend. The Pacific market is quiet. For Indo-India, Supras in south China are getting close to 11k. Nickel-ore rounds are getting firm rates in low-mid teens. Very quiet on iron ore front due to monsoons as WCI-China rates slided to 10k and from ECI around 9k. Few Indian tonnage seen ballasting to Indonesia and RBCT. As a result, RBCT biz fixed on APS at around 20k. Red Sea, ferts on handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voy bss to WC India. Period deals done at 14-15k for large Supras.
Panamax
Despite recent signs of life in the Cape market, and spot levels on Panamax turning positive mid week, the sentiment in the Panamax market suffers from an underlying weak tone. Charterers are holding back and activity overall is limited. In the Atlantic prompt positions has been cleared out and rates are slowly climbing in mid teens. Grain orders still appear from ECSA, and runs to the Far East holding at 25 + 500 for ballasters or 22-23k bss Med positions. Owners are still suffering in the eastern hemisphere by lack of fresh requirements from both Aussie and NOPAC. Low volumes on coal with just a few Indonesian rounds still there, and short term expectations for coal is not encouraging. Pacific levels not at five figures yet. The FFA market is hovering around 12-13k for the next 12-18 months, maintaining similar levels for short/medium period where activity also is limited.
Capesize
As most players were expecting a summer quiet market, the opposite is happening. West Australia/China route is stronger, in spite of only one of the big three appears to be active. Although little information in the market appears about last done levels, it seems mid 8s is the going level for this route. For Tubarao/Qingdao we see more activity as well, and bid/offer is presently usd 20,50/21.00 bss Tub/Qingdao. Short period is steady, with expectations for some further improvement, bid/offers for short period usd12,000/12,500 dly.

GAS
CHARTERING
Even though this week started off fairly quiet, the activity level has been healthy in the VLGC market east of Suez. The number of sub fixtures / fixtures has been reduced, however, a number of spot cargoes have been sold and subsequently sub fixed. Still there are rumours about couple of unsold stems for July loading. The Baltic LPG rate continued to increase this week as owners are pushing hard to achieve rates in the high 40´s. The number of spot vessels has been reduced to a large extent although there are a few relets returning to the MEG around mid month. The west of Suez market has been very quiet this week as well, however, there are rumours about a spot stem being worked for August loading in USG. Fixing rates have improved over the last week and probably this will continue for some time and push the Baltic to follow suit in upcoming week.

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
A week dominated with order rush from Greek Owners, both for container vessels, LNG carriers as well as large ore carriers. Maran Gas has this week placed orders for totally 4 LNG vessels, respectively 2 vessels at HHI and 2 vessels at DSME. Earlier this year Angelicoussis Shipping swapped 3 VLCC` into 3 LNG carriers at DSME for its Maran Gas division. With these latest orders, the LNG fleet of Maran gas has now grown to 15 vessels. Thenamaris has this week made its début into the LNG segment by ordering two 160,000cbm carriers at Samsung. We observe that the Korean yards are now firming their newbuilding prices for LNG carriers, and earliest delivery slots are now offered end 2014 and early 2015.

DEMOLITION

MARKET BRIEF



