Fearnleys Week 26 2011

Source:Fearnleys
2011.06.30
799

TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
The absence of sufficient business to make the owners´ world go round is weighing heavily on the market and threatens to weaken the already waning resolve owners have left. The supply of VLCC tonnage in the MEG appears more than sufficient with about 50 MEG fixtures done for July and about 95 VLCCs still remaining for the next 30 days. It still remains to be seen how many cargoes will be fixed for July lifting. If what has happened previously in 2011 is any indication, however, it appears likely that we shall continue with somewhat less than 120 VLCC cargoes per month from the MEG, and this  provides  a  bleak  prognosis  for  owners´  fortunes.  Suezmax  rates remained flat in all areas during the last week, and there was little activity to report in an already low market. Aframax rates in the Nsea/Baltic remained essentially unchanged from recent levels whilst a further decline in Aframax activity in the Med and the Caribs occasioned a build-up of tonnage which forced rates downwards in both these areas.
Product
In the West, after last week´s firming market, activity has slowed down and subsequently so have the rates. On the MR transatlantic fixtures, rates have declined, and are now at WS 170 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. On the larger vessels, there is still a surplus of tonnage. Activity seems flat, and rates have moved  sideways;  LR1s  trading  Baltic/USAC  are  fixing  at  WS110  basis 60kt. On the smaller vessels rates have moved up slightly, with Handies trading across NWEurope fixing at WS160 basis 30kt, and Flexis at WS200 basis 22kt. Caribs and USG activity seems to have slowed down again, with upcoast voyages fixing at WS175 basis 38kt and backhaul voyages USG/ UKC-MED at WS110 basis 38kt. East of Suez; activity remain relatively firm, but with the tonnage availability on the LR1s, rates remain unchanged from last week. LR1s trading MEG/JPN are fixing at WS125 basis 55kt. For the LR2s activity has improved, and several vessels have disappeared from the position list. Subsequently, rates have improved and LR2 fixtures on the route MEG/JPN are being concluded at WS 120 basis 75kt. For LR1s fixing Jet fuel MEG/UKC, the market has softened slightly, and now fixing at USD2 million basis 65kt. MRs trading Spore/JPN are seeing rates around ws145 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are seeing rates around ws145 basis 35kt.

DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
The Atlantic seems over supplied with tonnage on prompt positions. The sentiment is nervous but it could be better balance for mid July positions onwards. EC South America also softening assisted by ballasters from Indian Ocean. West coast India remains inactive due to monsoon in India. There has been no change in India, good vessel in EC India may see around USD10k for an Indonesian round voyage and Richards Bay will see the same. Handymax/Supramax may see low/mid USD 20 for Red Sea/India business. In the Pacific large Supras are able to secure 10k for NoPac rounds with an underlying weaker tone for forward positions.
Panamax
The Panamax market continued its downward pointing curve this week with rates knocking off ard USD 1,000 in both hemispheres. It seems the Pacific has dried up with cargoes as rates just keep on declining. Several ows are now ballasting towards the ECSA grain cargoes to secure employment for their ships. In the Atlantic owners are getting more and more reluctant to leave the basin and this puts pressure on the rates. The Tarv´s are now being fixed in the region of USD 15k while the Fhauls are fetching around USD22k. In the Pacific, rounds are being fixed at tick below USD 10k while the backhauls are getting a poor 5k level. The period market also took a dive this week with the MV CLARE 74,759 dwt/blt´05 being fixed with delivery Mizushima for 11/14 months at USD 12,750.
Capesize
The Pacific market has continued to rise on the back of last week´s strength. Driven by vessels delays the majors had to scramble to cover early positions and driving the West Australia freight rate up from a conference level in the mid/upper USD 7.00´s to high USD 9.00. Since then it has pulled back a bit but still trading in the upper USD 8.00 level. The Atlantic has also proven to be robust with levels now north of USD 14k daily on timecharter, and tonnage is still in tight supply. There were a few period deals done in the upper USD 11k´s for short period, and around USD 11k for a one year deal. Presently the market seems stable at today´s improved levels.

GAS
CHARTERING
The end of last week was eventful in the VLGC market, and despite jumpy crude prices a dozen sub fixtures was counted in the East, although not all were  confirmed.  Some  claim  that  this  increased  activity  was  fuelled  by several  short  positions  made  earlier  this  year  that  were  due  now.  Rates reported ranged from the low USD 40´s to 45 and as a result the Baltic reached USD 44 yesterday, an increase of 1.75 USD since Wednesday last week. The start of this week has been very quiet indeed, mostly due to the waiting for and absorbing of the announcement of the July CP prices. The Far East Index is falling as well and chartering activity will most likely halt for  the  remainder  of  this  week.  The  west  of  Suez  market  has  been  less active than the East, nonetheless a second vessel is rumoured to be repositioned for trading in the West. To summarize, talked and fixed freight rates improved quite a bit over the last week and there seems to be ample supply  of  fob  cargoes  in  the  MEG  ahead.  Vessels  available to  the  sport market are at large in control of independent owners, therefore higher sport rates are expected into next month.

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
The major box operators continue to add more tonnage into the orderbook. This  week,  the  total  is  25  ships,  all  container  carriers  (10  of  which  are declared options). In addition to box activity, we still hear of numerous inquiries for LNG slots, however, most of the major yards are now quoting end 2014 deliveries and somewhat higher prices.

DEMOLITION

MARKET BRIEF

 

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