Current newbuilding price has declined to a ten-year low and assessments for high-tech ships are projected to fall by 10%-15% in next year.
The global order catalog is estimate to last for about 19 months. The new orders totaled about 13.0n CGT since the beginning of this year, account for only 30% of global building capacity.
Therefore, it is estimated that global shipbuilding capacity is to shrink by 20% to reach a new balance. If current newbuilding demand goes on, about 9% of global shipbuilding capacity is supposed to be washed out in 2013 and 11% in 2014. China private shipyards are likely to be epicenter of the tremor and about 36% are to close down.
The depressed shipping freight rates and ship price are likely to go down further if ordering activities pick up again. However, current ship types’ are not that attractive for shipowner. Besides, present global financial support for ship industry is limited.