Fearnleys Week 23 2011
TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
The trend that has recently been seen in the MEG VLCC market continues with steady fixing, a shorter list of available tonnage, and slightly firmer rates. With about 110 fixtures now concluded from the MEG for June lifting and about 47 VLCCs still open basis Fujairah for the balance of the month, there is probably still more than enough tonnage available for any remaining June liftings. But the situation gradually appears to be turning more in owners´ favour. The Atlantic VLCC market is suffering due to a weak Suezmax market, and only Chinese and Indian charterers are active in moving cargoes to Asia. Suezmax rates in WAF took a further dip into the mid ws60s. With the Atlantic basin well over-tonnaged with Suezmaxes, there is little or no reason to expect a better WAF market in the near future. In the Med/Bsea, there was scant Suezmax activity and the market remains soft with a strong downward pressure. The same was true for the Aframax markets in the Nsea/Baltic and the Med/Bsea where available tonnage far exceeded cargoes. In the Med, the Aframax market bottomed out at ws82.5 and has remained at this low level for some time. For Aframaxes trading Caribs/upcoast rates remained unchanged at the ws100 level.
Product
West; the CPP market remained weak in all segments with TC equivalent earnings for LR1s and MRs approaching the usd zero mark. A lack of cargoes combined with the accumulation of available tonnage placed considerable downward pressure on rate levels. We assess the MR TA market to be ws140 basis 37k m/t which fails to generate earnings that are positive on a TA round voyage basis. Our assessment for LR1s on the same voyage is ws117.5 (around usd 7k/day). With most owners incurring waiting time of up to one week prior to obtaining employment, net earnings are close to zero. There was limited activity in the fuel oil market which resulted in a further surplus of tonnage and a further decline in rates of about 10 ws points. The Handy cross UK market dropped about 7.5 ws points to ws157.5 basis 30k m/t whilst the Flexis dropped to ws197.5 basis 22k m/t. In the Caribs, upcoast rates dropped about ws15 to around the ws130 level. Limited activity on backhauls to Europe and rates remained around ws85/90 basis 38k m/t. We see little reason to expect any improvement in any of these markets in the near future. East; the clean tanker market east of Suez remained unchanged for a few days but has now turned downwards. We see little reason for optimism in the near term. Rates MEG/Japan are at the ws130 level basis 55k m/t for LR1s and at ws105 basis 75k m/t for LR2s. Jet fuel cargoes MEG/UKC are being concluded at the usdm 1.9 level basis 65k m/t. For MRs rates are around ws155 basis 30k m/t on the Spore/Japan route and around ws145 basis 35k m/t on the MEG/Japan route.


DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
Fairly quiet markets across the board with another flat week/stagnant rates in store. Nevertheless, tonnage is thinning out in the Black Sea for the second half of June which might give some improvement on rates. Little activity on the Continent. USG remains stable on the back of regular petcoke exports. In the ECSA more cargoes are programmed for the second half of June thus look for better rates there in near future. The Pacific market is falling further with less activity. For Indo-India, Supras in North China are getting close to 10k. Nickel-ore rounds are getting firm rates in low-mid teens from Indonesia. WCI-China rates slided to 13k and from ECI around 12k. Red Sea, ferts on Handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/India round now asking 14k. Period deals done at 14-15k for large Supras.
Panamax
After a slow end to last week and even slower start to this week, the market improved on Tuesday in both hemispheres. The Atlantic saw several fresh cargoes fm USEC and ECSA, and in the Far East the upturn came due to fresh coal cargoes from Aussie and Indonesia to China. Now, at mid week, we are again at a crossroad with the players not sure where the market will be heading. We see some more interest in period deals now, and seems chrts feel the rates at ard USD 14k are interesting for twelve months. Atlantic rounds are getting fixed at ard USD 16k while front hauls are being fixed in the low/mid USD 20k´s. Pacific rounds are being fixed around 13.5/14k while the backhauls are getting fixed around USD 6k´s.
Capesize
Cold water is again coming out of the shower for owners as spot levels fall due to softening demand - average daily earnings down 10% w-o-w to come in at USD 10k. In Atlantic, fronthaul activity is cooling down, although rates not yet dramatically affected. The sudden lack of transatlantic trade is more felt, with a resultant drop of almost 30% to an estimated USD 10k/day. Far East remains challenging and keeps hovering around OPEX levels - low USD 7k´s for rounds and uninspiring USD 7.50 pmt for the Dampier/ Qingdao conference trade. As forward paper prices give no support at present, period activity has come to a halt after a handful of units were concluded for short and medium periods - exemplified by 174kdwt/blt 2006 done for 12 months at USD 11k and 169kdwt/blt 2009 done for 4-6 months at USD 10500, both basis prompt delivery in Far East.

GAS
CHARTERING
There was not too much wrong with the activity level last week; Producers floated a few FOB tenders, some freight negos took place and a few deals were subfixed and confirmed. Rates, however, remained where they have been the last fortnight in the very low USD 40´s per ton basis Ras Tanura/ Chiba. Owners are attempting to somehow lift rates step by step, but the liquidity in the market is not high enough to make it happen yet, and patience seems to be the word. There are about 7-8 available VLGCs in the MEG for the balance of June, a fairly modest number compared to previous months, nonetheless probably outnumbering remaining cargoes that need freight. The Indian charterers have not been as active as they were in previous months lately, and it shows how vulnerable the VLGC freight market is when a few cargoes disappear. In the West there was some activity, too, charterers tried their best to squeeze owners, but at the end of the day very little had materialized. A Status Quo week, indeed.

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
Some activity in the product market this week. It seems there is a renewed interest in MR segment. All together 9 MRs confirmed at Korean shipyards. In addition, LNG is still in demand. Russian owner, Sovcomflot, placed an order for two 170,000 cbm LNG carriers at STX Jinhae with delivery end 2013 and mid 2014.

DEMOLITION

MARKET BRIEF



