Fearnleys Week 23 2011

Source:Fearnleys
2011.06.09
815

TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
The trend that has recently been seen in the MEG VLCC market continues with steady fixing, a shorter list of available tonnage, and slightly firmer rates. With about 110 fixtures now concluded from the MEG for June lifting and about 47 VLCCs still open basis Fujairah for the balance of the month, there is probably still more than enough tonnage available for any remaining June  liftings.  But  the  situation  gradually  appears  to  be  turning  more  in owners´ favour. The Atlantic VLCC market is suffering due to a weak Suezmax  market,  and  only  Chinese  and  Indian  charterers  are  active  in moving cargoes to Asia. Suezmax rates in WAF took a further dip into the mid  ws60s.  With  the  Atlantic  basin  well  over-tonnaged with  Suezmaxes, there is little or no reason to expect a better WAF market in the near future. In the Med/Bsea, there was scant Suezmax activity and the market remains soft with a strong downward pressure. The same was true for the Aframax markets in the Nsea/Baltic and the Med/Bsea where available tonnage far exceeded cargoes. In the Med, the Aframax market bottomed out at ws82.5 and has remained at this low level for some time. For Aframaxes trading Caribs/upcoast rates remained unchanged at the ws100 level.
Product
West; the CPP market remained weak in all segments with TC equivalent earnings  for  LR1s  and  MRs  approaching  the  usd  zero  mark.  A  lack  of cargoes combined with the accumulation of available tonnage placed considerable  downward  pressure  on  rate  levels.  We  assess  the  MR  TA market to be ws140 basis 37k m/t which fails to generate earnings that are positive on a TA round voyage basis. Our assessment for LR1s on the same voyage is ws117.5 (around usd 7k/day). With most owners incurring waiting time of up to one week prior to obtaining employment, net earnings are close  to  zero.  There  was  limited  activity  in  the  fuel  oil  market  which resulted in a further surplus of tonnage and a further decline in rates of about 10 ws points. The Handy cross UK market dropped about 7.5 ws points to ws157.5 basis 30k m/t whilst the Flexis dropped to ws197.5 basis 22k m/t. In the Caribs, upcoast rates dropped about ws15 to around the ws130 level. Limited activity on backhauls to Europe and rates remained around ws85/90 basis 38k m/t. We see little reason to expect any improvement in any of these markets in the near future. East; the clean tanker market east of Suez remained unchanged for a few days but has now turned downwards. We see little  reason  for  optimism  in  the  near term.  Rates  MEG/Japan  are  at  the ws130 level basis 55k m/t for LR1s and at ws105 basis 75k m/t for LR2s. Jet fuel cargoes MEG/UKC are being concluded at the usdm 1.9 level basis 65k m/t. For MRs rates are around ws155 basis 30k m/t on the Spore/Japan route and around ws145 basis 35k m/t on the MEG/Japan route.


DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
Fairly quiet markets across the board with another flat week/stagnant rates in store. Nevertheless, tonnage is thinning out in the Black Sea for the second half of June which might give some improvement on rates. Little activity on the Continent. USG remains stable on the back of regular petcoke exports. In the ECSA more cargoes are programmed for the second half of June thus look for better rates there in near future. The Pacific market is falling further with less activity. For Indo-India, Supras in North China are getting close to 10k.  Nickel-ore  rounds  are  getting  firm  rates  in  low-mid  teens  from Indonesia. WCI-China rates slided to 13k and from ECI around 12k. Red Sea, ferts on Handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/India round now asking 14k. Period deals done at 14-15k for large Supras.
Panamax
After a slow end to last week and even slower start to this week, the market improved on Tuesday in both hemispheres. The Atlantic saw several fresh cargoes fm USEC and ECSA, and in the Far East the upturn came due to fresh coal cargoes from Aussie and Indonesia to China. Now, at mid week, we are again at a crossroad with the players not sure where the market will be heading. We see some more interest in period deals now, and seems chrts feel the rates at ard USD 14k are interesting for twelve months. Atlantic rounds are getting fixed at ard USD 16k while front hauls are being fixed in the  low/mid  USD  20k´s.  Pacific  rounds  are  being  fixed  around  13.5/14k while the backhauls are getting fixed around USD 6k´s.
Capesize
Cold water is again coming out of the shower for owners as spot levels fall due to softening demand - average daily earnings down 10% w-o-w to come in  at  USD  10k.  In  Atlantic,  fronthaul  activity  is  cooling  down,  although rates not yet dramatically affected. The sudden lack of transatlantic trade is more felt, with a resultant drop of almost 30% to an estimated USD 10k/day. Far East remains challenging and keeps hovering around OPEX levels - low USD  7k´s  for  rounds  and  uninspiring  USD  7.50  pmt  for  the  Dampier/ Qingdao  conference  trade.  As  forward  paper  prices  give  no  support  at present, period activity has come to a halt after a handful of units were concluded for short and medium periods - exemplified by 174kdwt/blt 2006 done for 12 months at USD 11k and 169kdwt/blt 2009 done for 4-6 months at USD 10500, both basis prompt delivery in Far East.

GAS
CHARTERING
There was not too much wrong with the activity level last week; Producers floated a few FOB tenders, some freight negos took place and a few deals were subfixed and confirmed. Rates, however, remained where they have been the last fortnight in the very low USD 40´s per ton basis Ras Tanura/ Chiba. Owners are attempting to somehow lift rates step by step, but the liquidity  in  the  market  is  not  high  enough  to  make  it  happen  yet,  and patience seems to be the word. There are about 7-8 available VLGCs in the MEG for the balance of June, a fairly modest number compared to previous months, nonetheless probably outnumbering remaining cargoes that need freight.  The  Indian  charterers  have  not  been  as  active  as  they  were  in previous  months  lately,  and  it  shows  how  vulnerable  the  VLGC  freight market  is  when  a  few  cargoes  disappear.  In  the  West  there  was  some activity, too, charterers tried their best to squeeze owners, but at the end of the day very little had materialized. A Status Quo week, indeed.

NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
Some activity in the product market this week. It seems there is a renewed interest in MR segment. All together 9 MRs confirmed at Korean shipyards. In addition, LNG is still in demand. Russian owner, Sovcomflot, placed an order for two 170,000 cbm LNG carriers at STX Jinhae with delivery end 2013 and mid 2014.

DEMOLITION

MARKET BRIEF

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