Fearnleys Week 21 2011
TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
There has been more action in the VLCC market, and the list of available VLCC tonnage in the MEG has gradually become somewhat slimmer than it has been. With fewer vessels available and with several charterers at one point compelled to seek coverage simultaneously, rates have finally shown some improvement. On the MEG/East route rates above ws50 were done after charterers had enjoyed rates in the high ws40s since the middle of April. Owners are still hoping to see further increases, and in the next few days we should know whether the supply of tonnage will continue to diminish to the extent that owners will be in a position to charge healthier rates for their services. Suezmax rates in WAF softened further during the past week and are now stable at around ws75 for a voyage WAF/USG. Med/ Bsea Suezmax demand was not sufficient to absorb enough tonnage to maintain or increase rates, and rate levels softened somewhat since our last report and are now in the low ws80s. Aframax rates in the Nsea enjoyed a small hop upwards as tonnage for end May and early June was fixed away, and charterers seeking to cover loading windows for this period will surely experience more resistance from owners with vessels remaining. The Med/Bsea Aframax market also firmed during the last week as activity picked up and the solid premiums for loading in Syria came into the picture. Nonetheless, charterers are now rather less interested in seeking coverage, and with fewer requirements in the market rates are expected to soften.
Product
The descent in transatlantic freight rates can this week only be described as a landslide, washing away earnings with unabated force on a daily basis. Owners have been unable to provide any significant resistance on the way down, squashing rates for MR vessels to ws140 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. Activity on the LR1s trading Baltic/USAC is much slower, with rates softening to around ws130 basis 60kt. Despite a squeeze for the larger ships, smaller ships see steady rates with Handies trading across NWEurope at ws170 basis 30kt, and Flexis at ws205 basis 22kt. Activity is muted in the states, with Caribs upcoast fixing at ws150 basis 38kt, backhaul voyages USG/UKC-Med at ws90 level basis 38kt. Following the steep correction in TA rates we can see a market through being close, and expect the rates to stabilize. In the clean tanker market East of Suez, we have seen a softer tendency over the last week. For LR1s trading MEG/JPN fixtures are being concluded at WS 137.5 basis 55kt. On the LR2s, fixtures are being concluded at WS 120 basis 75kt on the same route. As more tonnage is available in MEG, we expect the market to remain soft. Jet fuel liftings MEG/UKC basis 65kt are fixing at USD 1.95 million. MRs trading Spore/ JPN are seeing rates around ws159 basis 30kt, whilst MRs trading MEG/JPN are seeing rates around ws152 basis 35kt.
DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
Rates in the Atlantic remain steady/flat with the Black Sea remaining quiet with little fresh enquiries. The Continent is seeing more tonnage on ppt /beg of June positions. US Gulf to the Far East is slowly but surely firming further and more activity seen on transatlantic round voyage. ECSA is balanced with very little movement on rates. Outlook: stable. The Pacific market remains soft and owners unwilling to come in India due to lack of outbound cargoes. For Indo-India, Supras in North China are getting close to 12k. Nickel-ore rounds are getting firm rates in mid-high teens from Indonesia. WCI-China rates slided to 15k and from ECI around 12k. Red Sea; ferts on handymax/ Supras are fixed at very mid 20´s pmt on voyage basis to WC India. Large Supras for RBCT/India round are now asking 15k. Short period deals done at mid-teens for large Supras.
Panamax
After a slow start to the week, we saw more cargoes in the market on Tuesday with both coal from US and grains from ECSA. Especially the Pacific basin took a turn on Tuesday evening with chrts chasing prompt ships which were lacking. NoPac rounds were fixed at around 14k and still climbing, while the Atlantic rounds were fetching around USD 15k. Fronthauls hovering around USD 250k. It has been some short period activity this week with rates hovering around 13/14k. It was also rumored a kmax being fixed and failed for 3 years at a tick more than USD 14k.
Capesize
Finally some good news for ship-owners with interests in this segment, even though rates in general are at a historic low and fundamentals have changed very little over the week. Driven almost entirely by increased transatlantic coal trades and a steady volume on the Brazil/China iron ore run, average spot levels are up more than 50% to come in at close to USD 9k. Pacific is slow and eventless in comparison, though, with resultant levels for the WAust/China ore run only marginally up at USD 7.35 pmt which is still below opex. Expectations are there for this to last a little longer, thus more period fixing is expected - last done is 178kdwt/built 1998 done for 10-14 months at USD 10700/day basis delivery Qingdao mid June.
GAS
CHARTERING
There was no breaking news in the VLGC market last week, the tepidness from previous week continued and the few freight discussions that took place were at softish levels. There are not too many vessels showing open over the next few weeks, at least not compared with recent months, however, very few spot cargoes are showing and their charterers are not in a hurry to fix freight as long as the softer freight rates prevail. In the West it was equally dull, and besides there are a handful vessels coming open over the next 10 days where the outlook at current appears somewhat bleak. With less than a week to go before the announcement of June posted prices from the main suppliers, nobody is in a hurry to do anything. Everybody expects drastic reductions in June posted compared to the all time high May prices, therefore owners hope for a much sought after encouragement to revive physical trading/chartering soon. We would say the VLGC freight market is rather indecisive in the nearest future, but we believe the upside is bigger than the downside.
NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
16 ships reported this week, most of which are container carriers. Despite of the weak tanker market, Gulf Navigation placed an order for 2 VLCCs at Jinhai Heavy, which is one of the very few VLCC order in 2011.
DEMOLITION
MARKET BRIEF