An analysis forecasts that 352 additional LNG carriers could be needed if projects get go-ahead.
If all proposed liquefied natural gas projects filed at present gain approval demand for LNG carriers could double by 2020, with an additional 352 vessels needed to carry extra cargo, according to Pareto Securities.
The Norwegian investment bank has forecast that LNG trade volumes could reach 781bn cu m in 2020, a 455bn cu m rise on last year’s levels, if all planned liquefaction projects receive ‘final investment decision’.
Its LNG market outlook report did warn that the weak economy could see funding for some projects at risk, which meant it was not likely that all would get approval and come on stream as planned.
However, Pareto also pointed out that almost all projects last year got FID despite turmoil in the financial markets in the second half of 2011, and there are likely to be new projects that surface that will add to these forecast volumes.
Large scale growth in LNG trade volumes is set to hit in 2016, when Australian projects are planned to start coming on stream, with 425bn cu m expected that year if all proposed capacity goes ahead, which will create ship demand for 438 LNG carriers compared to 361 last year.
As additional LNG projects come on board, Pareto forecasts 782 vessels will be needed by 2020, which would imply a deficit of 352 ships when compared to the current fleet and orderbook for these specialised and expensive vessels.