Newbuilding price falling could stabilize next year as they hit a floor set by rising costs for shipyards and there is contraction in excess shipbuilding capacity.
Maritime Strategies International director Adam Kent says since the peak in 2007, when 150 Chinese yards received orders for ships of over 5,000 gt, the number of Chinese builders taking orders had declined, with some 46% of Chinese yards having not taken any new orders since 2008.
According to MSI, deliveries of new vessels will decline significantly from 2013 and there will not be a big rise in new orders.
“Shipbuilding capacity will contract due to a combination of yard closures, a return to pre-boom business models such as shiprepair, use of shipbuilding berths and workforces for non-shipbuilding activity and a reduction in berth productivity.”
Dr Kent projected that overall global shipbuilding capacity will shrink from about 160m gt annually to about 100m gt by 2015. This is still in excess of likely demand. In 2010 output was about 45m gt and slightly higher this year. But MSI expects it to drop to about 35m gt in 2012 and 32m gt by 2013.